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03.03.2011 09:22

Asian session: The euro rose

 

Data:

00:30   Australia Trade Balance 1.87

The euro rose toward its strongest since November against the dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will emphasize its readiness to raise interest rates as price pressures increase.
The single currency maintained gains from yesterday before a report forecast to show European retail sales increased and before U.S. figures tomorrow on non-farm payrolls. 
The yen erased gains versus the euro as reports the Arab League was studying a peace plan for Libya curbed demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.
The euro was supported by “speculation the ECB will sharpen its anti-inflation rhetoric,” John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney, wrote today in a note to clients.
Retail sales in the bloc rose 0.3 percent in January after falling 0.4 percent the prior month, according to a survey of economists before today’s European Union statistics office report. 
U.S. employers added 195,000 jobs last month, the most since May 2010, according to a survey of economists before tomorrow’s Labor Department report.


EUR/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,3840-$ 1,3875.
GBP/USD: the pair bargained within the limits of $1,6300-$ 1,6330.
USD/JPY: the pair bargained within the limits of Y81,75-Y81,90.

EMU data also includes the 1000GMT release of retail trade as well as the second release of Q4 GDP data. The retail trade is expected to rise by 0.5% m/m. The main event of Thursday is set to be the European Central Bank meeting where the announcement is due at 1245GMT. No change in rates is expected but all eyes will be on ECB President Trichet for the usual press conference at 1330GMT.The European Central Bank will likely step up its inflation warning at
the press conference, but it will stop short of signaling rate hikes in the very near term as the Council seeks to apprehend the impact of global commodity price pressures on Eurozone inflation amid ongoing market tensions. The ECB may still offer some action by resuming its exit from non-standard liquidity supply or announcing measures to limit the use of those operations by so-called persistent bidders. ECB  President Jean-Claude Trichet will likely confirm that interests rates are "still appropriate."
UK releases PMI Services data for February, at 0928GMT. 

 

03.03.2011 09:30

UK: Feb CIPS svcs PMI 52.6

03.03.2011 08:59

EUROZONE: Feb svcs PMI 56.8

Market Focus

  • The eurozone started the third quarter on a solid footing, according to PMI survey data
  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • German private sector output growth slowed for the second month running in July
  • ECB's Mersch says as conditions normalise, it is unlikely that uncoventional policies will remain necessary
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