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15.02.2011 13:06

EU session reviw: Euro advances versus Dollar, Yen as German investor confidence increases

Data released
07:00     Germany     GDP (Q4) flash    0.4%    0.5%    0.7%
07:00     Germany     GDP (Q4) flash Y/Y    4.0%    4.1%    3.9%
09:00     Italy     GDP (Q4) preliminary    0.1%    0.2%    0.3%
09:00     Italy     GDP (Q4) preliminary Y/Y    1.3%    1.4%    1.1%
09:30     UK     HICP (January)    0.1%    0.3%    1.0%
09:30     UK     HICP (January) Y/Y    4.0%    4.2%    3.7%
09:30     UK     HICP ex EFAT (January) Y/Y    3.0%    3.3%    2.9%
09:30     UK     Retail prices (January)    0.3%    0.2%    0.7%
09:30     UK     Retail prices (January) Y/Y    5.1%    5.1%    4.8%
09:30     UK     RPI-X (January) Y/Y         5.1%    4.7%
10:00     Germany     ZEW economic expectations index (February)    15.7    20.0    15.4
10:00     EU(16)     GDP (Q4) flash    0.3%    0.4%    0.3%
10:00     EU(16)     GDP (Q4) flash Y/Y    2.0%    2.1%    1.9%
10:00     EU(16)     Trade balance (December) adjusted, bln     -2.3    -    -3.2 (-1.9)

The euro gained versus most of its major counterparts as data showed German investor confidence rose for a fourth month in February.
The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months in advance, increased to 15.7 from 15.4 in January. Economists forecast a gain to 20, according to the median of estimates.
“Although the German ZEW number was perhaps not as strong as the market was expecting, overall the numbers weren’t actually that poor, so couple that with some buying interest in terms of flow in the market and you have seen euro-dollar actually perform relatively well,” said Lauren Rosborough, a senior strategist.
The finance ministers agreed that a permanent rescue mechanism to be set up from 2013 would total 500 billion euros, but there was no agreement over how to beef up its existing rescue fund.
The yen weakened before reports that are forecast to show a strengthening U.S. economy, increasing the appeal of higher-yielding assets.
The Bank of Japan kept rates on hold at the end of its two-day policy meeting as widely expected.

EUR/USD initially declined to $1.3460 before recovered to $1.3552. Rate holds higher, but off session highs.

GBP/USD broke above strong resistance at $1.6100 and printed session high on $1.6144. Offers at $1.6140/60.

USD/JPY rose from Y83.40 to Y83.80. Offers mentioned ahead of Y84.00 with stops above.

The main US releases are due to come at 1330GMT, when the Jan retail sales data, Jan export/import data and Feb NY Fed Empire State Survey come.
Retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% in January. Sales excluding motor vehicles are also expected to post a 0.5% increase on the higher gasoline prices.
The Empire State Index is expected to rise to a reading of 15.0 in February, indicating further expansion.
At 1400GMT the release of the December TICS data is scheduled.

15.02.2011 12:47

GOLD:

Market Focus

  • Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 45th president of the United States
  • Canada: Retail Sales, m/m, November 0.2% (forecast 0.5%)
  • U.S.: Nonfarm Payrolls, January 227 (forecast 175)
  • Eurozone: Consumer Confidence, January -4.9
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