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03.02.2011 13:04

EU session review:Dollar strengthens on growth signs

Data released:
08:45     Italy     PMI services (January)    49.9    50.8    50.2
08:50     France     PMI services (January)    57.8    57.1    54.9
08:55     Germany     PMI services (January) seasonally adjusted    60.3    60.0    59.2
09:00     EU(17)     PMI services (January)    55.9    55.2    54.2
09:30     UK     CIPS services index (January)    54.5    51.0    49.7
10:00     EU(16)     Retail sales (December) adjusted    -0.6%    0.5%    -0.3 (-0.8)%
10:00     EU(16)     Retail sales (December) adjusted Y/Y     -0.9%    0.2%    0.8 (0.1)%
12:45     EU(17)     ECB meeting announcement 1.00% 1.00%

The dollar gained against most of its major peers before U.S. reports today and tomorrow that are forecast to show services industries grew for a 14th month and hiring increased in January.
The euro fell for the second day against the dollar as investors bet European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet won’t toughen the bank’s anti-inflation stance.
European inflation accelerated last month to the fastest since October 2008, according to a preliminary estimate by the statistics office on Jan. 31. Trichet said on Jan. 26 the ECB will “do what is necessary” to maintain price stability.
“Some of the data that’s been coming out of the U.S. suggests that the economy there is improving quite nicely and the market is starting to factor in the possibility that the payrolls data will be on the stronger side,” said Michael Derks, chief strategist at FxPro Financial.
The Australian dollar gained against all its major counterparts as reports on trade and building permits added to signs of resilience in the economy.
“We had good trade data, there are some concerns over the cyclone but the market looked at this one data print and saw it in a fairly positive light, that’s the main driver,” said Chris Walker, a foreign-exchange strategist at UBS AG.
The number of permits granted to build or renovate houses and apartments in Australia advanced 8.7% in December from November, when they fell a revised 3.9%, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today.
A separate report showed the trade surplus was A$1.98 billion ($2 billion) in December, compared with the median estimate of A$1.6 billion in a survey of economists.

EUR/USD rose to $1.3826 after strong PMI data but then retreated after retail sales dropped in EU. rate fell to $1.3750/55.

GBP/USD initially rose after a strong PMI report to session high on $1.6277. But offers around $1.6280/00 capped the rise and pound declined to $1.6200/95.

USD/JPY rose from Y81.50 to Y81.84.

US data starts at 1330GMT, with the latest Jobless Claims and Non-farm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs data.
US data continues at 1500GMT with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and also Factory Orders.
The ISM non-manufacturing index is expected to decline just slightly to a reading of 57.0 in January from the unrevised 57.1 December reading, while factory new orders are expected to fall by 0.4% on the already-announced 2.5% drop in durable goods orders. The weekly EIA Natural Gas Stocks data then follows, at 1530GMT.

Market Focus

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  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week
  • Australian unemployment rate stable at 5.6% in June
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