It would be bizarre for the European Union to impose tariffs on British goods flowing into the bloc after Brexit rather than agree a standstill agreement on trade, Boris Johnson, the leading candidate to be Britain's next prime minister said.
"I think it would be very bizarre if the EU should decide on their own ... if they decided to impose tariffs on goods coming from the UK it would be ... a return to Napoleon's continental system," Johnson told LBC radio on Tuesday.
Japan and the United States increased their understanding of each other's viewpoints on trade during talks held over the past week, Japan's senior government official Kazuhisa Shibuya said on Tuesday.
Officials from the two sides held discussions about industrial products on June 20, and about agricultural goods on Tuesday, he told reporters.
Washington and Tokyo are in negotiations for a trade deal as U.S. President Donald Trump's administration seeks to lower his country's trade deficit and boost exports to its major trading partners.
Danske Bank analysts note that the oil price collapsed towards the end of May before finding support at USD60/bbl as the risk-off in the oil market came on the back of new threats from Trump towards Mexico and fears over further escalations in the US-China trade war.
“The balance in the market still looks tight. On the supply-side OPEC+ is implementing the output cuts agreed upon in December 2018 and is discussing a possible extension from June. Venezuelan production is in freefall, Libyan output is at risk following an insurgence and the waivers on Iranian sanctions have expired. On the demand side, the macro backdrop remains relatively weak as the macroeconomic data and global trade growth prospects have been weak. We see Brent on average at USD75/bbl in Q3 and USD80/bbl in Q4.”
Italy's economy minister said on Tuesday he was confident about the chances of reaching an agreement with the European Union over Rome's budget, and the new deficit targets will show a "more than prudent" fiscal policy.
Brussels is threatening to open a disciplinary action against Italy for its growing debt.
"I do not see obstacles for an agreement with the EU," Giovanni Tria said. "I am optimistic."
The minister confirmed that the new deficit target for this year will be lowered to 2.1% from 2.4%.
According to analysts at Royal Bank of Canada, industrial sector softness is suggesting that the US economy also has much to lose from trade war.
“US industrial output has softened this year, and the escalating trade war with China is partly to blame. Threatened additional US tariffs on Chinese products and on auto imports from Europe and Japan risk pushing the sector into full-blown slowdown mode. What’s happening in the industrial sector challenges the notion that the US has less to lose in a trade war with China, but that is also why we continue to assume that tensions will ultimately ease.”
The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in the main construction industry in April 2019 decreased a seasonally and working-day adjusted 1.7% on March 2019.
In building construction and civil and underground engineering, in establishments of enterprises with 20 or more persons, new orders increased by 12.7% in nominal terms compared with the corresponding month of the previous year.
This decline was due to the high order intake last month on the back of particularly good development, the agency reported.
Compared to the previous year, price-adjusted order intake in the main construction industry increased 6.4% in April.
From the January to April period, construction orders advanced 7.5% from the same period last year.
Britain's car industry called for the country's next prime minister to secure a Brexit deal which keeps frictionless EU trade, warning that a no-deal exit risks billions of pounds of tariffs and border disruption which could cripple the sector.
"We are already seeing the consequences of uncertainty, the fear of no deal. The next PM’s first job in office must be to secure a deal that maintains frictionless trade because, for our industry, ‘no deal’ is not an option, we don’t have the luxury of time," said Mike Hawes, the Chief Executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.
Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities, expects the RBNZ to keep the cash rate on hold at 1.50% at tomorrow's meeting with the Bank shifting to an easing bias, paving the way for a cut at the August meeting.
“Although GDP and CPI are close to the Bank's targets, we cannot rule out the possibility of the Bank delivering a surprise cut at this meeting to show it is ahead of the curve. OIS is placing less than a 20% chance to this outcome. If the RBNZ cuts, the NZD should should drop 1% or more. From current levels this implies a 0.6550 target. If there is no easing bias, then the NZD should rise 0.5%. From current levels this implies 0.6670.”
According to the report from statistic agency Insee, French manufacturing sector sentiment soured this month as business leaders became less optimistic about activity in the sector.
Figures showed that manufacturing sentiment declined to 102 in June from May's six-month high of 104. Economists had projected a flat reading. June's figure was the lowest since November 2016.
The shift in the mood of the manufacturing sector of the eurozone's second-largest economy comes a day after figures showed deteriorating business sentiment in its largest.
Investors will now look ahead to Wednesday's releases to gauge the temperature of consumer sentiment in both France and Germany. Economists expect both measures to have turned more negative.
In view of Jens Nærvig Pedersen, senior analyst at Danske Bank, USD weakness has grabbed hold in the majors.
“Today, the market will scrutinise Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. The market is assigning a two-thirds chance of a 25bp cut and a one-third chance of a 50bp cut when the Fed meets in July. That is a bit on the dovish side in our view, which opens up for a temporary setback in EUR/USD on the way towards our 3M forecast of 1.15. Further, USD/CHF continues to decline, highlighting the relative starting point of the Fed vs the SNB in terms of scope for policy easing (clearly greater for the former). Relatedly, we stress that a further drop in EUR/CHF towards 1.10 is where the SNB might try to step in but whether it will be effective in stemming further franc strength near term is questionable in our view.”
The European Union will allow Italy to increase its deficit if it helped the country's economy, Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio was quoted as saying on Tuesday as Rome is facing a budget tussle with Brussels.
Di Maio, who leads the ruling 5 Star Movement, added that he was confident his government partner, the League party, had a clear idea on how to cover its tax cut plan.
Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Tuesday he would meet U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer timed with the U.S. official’s visit to Japan for the Group of 20 leaders’ summit later this week.
Motegi added he would announce details including the date and location of the talks once they were set.
Washington and Tokyo are in negotiations for a trade deal as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration seeks to lower his country’s trade deficit and boost exports to its major trading partners.
In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD’s outlook is positive as it has overcome on a closing basis both the 200 week ma and the 200 day ma at 1.1348 which should trigger an attempt on the 1.1416 55 week moving average and the 1.1570 2019 high.
“Beyond this we target 1.1815/54 (highs from June and September 2018). We note the 13 count on the 60 minute chart and we would allow for a small near term retracement into the 1.1360/25 band ahead of further gains. Initial support at 1.1175. We regard recent lows at 1.1110/06 as an interim turning point and continue to view the market as based longer term and we target 1.1990 (measurement higher from the wedge). Support at 1.1110/06 is regarded as the break down point to the 2018-2019 support line at 1.1027 and the 1.0814 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.”
Danske Bank analysts note that the US has put sanctions on Iran's supreme leader Khamenei and eight other senior officials as tensions between the US and Iran continue to grow.
“In return, Iran reported that the diplomatic path with Washington is closed forever. Meanwhile, oil prices are trading lower, with Brent crude falling below USD64/bbl. In our view, the latest escalation of the conflict and the new round of sanctions are less important to the oil market since Iran's oil production is already very low. US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin spoke on Monday with China's Vice Premier Minister Liu He on the phone as the two countries are preparing for the G20 meeting, where US President Trump and China's President Xi Jinping are set to meet - likely on 29 June - in hopes that trade talks will be resumed.”
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.1407
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date July, 5 is 70259 contracts (according to data from June, 24) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1300 (4422);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2752
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date July, 5 is 17375 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3000 (2829);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date July, 5 is 16001 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2500 (2199);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 0.92 versus 0.90 from the previous trading day according to data from June, 24
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
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