Market Overview

9 June 2022 12:32

Mark Goichmann

Since the beginning of May the U.S. Dollar vs the Turkish Lira chart could be compared to a space rocket, shooting off into the sky.  This week the Greenback is up from 16.26 to 17.20 Turkish Lira, or by 3% over three days. This amounts to 600% of annual yield. It seems that after a slow start, the “rocket” went shot far out into outer space. The Turkish Lira is primary suffering from the Turkish Central Bank’s unusual monetary policy directed by the President of Turkey Recep Erdogan.
24 May 2022 11:34

Mark Goichmann

Gold has two major abilities. One is that it is traditionally considered to be a safe haven asset that is in high demand during times of elevated risks in the market, rising inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties. The second is that it acts as an anti-dollar indication because gold prices mostly move in the opposite direction to the Dollar. The Dollar itself has become a safe haven asset in recent months as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has risen interest rates along with Treasuries yields. So, gold prices are now more correlated with the Greenback’s moves. The U.S.
18 May 2022 09:39

Mark Goichmann

Modern irrational market life sometimes breaks traditional molds. Countries with positive trade balance were seeking for a weaker national currency to benefit their exports. Weak Euro, Swiss Franc, British Pound and similar currencies are dependent on their exports. Thus, weaker nation currency support exports and increase budget revenues. Thus, a giveaway game continued for decades. Whoever has a weaker currency seems to be the champion. Eventually, pandemic and Russian warfare in Ukraine became a game changing environment in 2022.
12 May 2022 12:48

Mark Goichmann

The British Pound suffered over the last month when it plunged 7% from 1.3112 below the 1.2200 level. However, the Greenback is responsible for most of this dive. It has been heavily rising across the market since the Federal Reserve (Fed) began to tighten its monetary policy and increasing interest rates. Geopolitical,  inflationary, and stagflation risks usually draw investors towards the safe haven U.S. Dollar. The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) that measures the currency basket of the Dollar against six major currencies, rose from 99.8 points to 104.
21 April 2022 17:13

Mark Goichmann

Despite some correction of the U.S. Dollar index from 101 to 100 points, more factors seem to be pointing towards the further strengthening of the Greenback rather than for its decline, and the recent drop may be rather distinguished as a correction to the upward trend. These factors are: Expectations for a steeper angle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Investors are considering the 96% probability of a 50 basic point interest rate hike from 0.5% to 1.0% to be announced the May 5 meeting.
15 April 2022 07:25

Mark Goichmann

During its meeting on Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB)  trumpeted a more hawkish tune when revealing its monetary policy perspectives. The ECB plans to reduce its bond-buying program under APP to 30 billion Euros in May and to 20 billion Euros in June from the current 40 billion Euros a month. The program itself is planned to be terminated somewhere during Q3 2022. By declaring this the ECB has joined the approach of other major central banks that have already lifted interest rates, but without actually doing so.
31 March 2022 12:26

Mark Goichmann

Newly released March economic data for the Eurozone highlights elevating economic troubles and investors’ pessimism. The Business and Consumer Survey, which measures the level of confidence in the Eurozone, fell to 108.5 points from the previously 113.9 points. The survey also showed that Business Climate, that provides a general look at business health for a period, fell to 1.67 from 1.79 and the Industrial Sentiment dipped to 10.4 from 14.1.
18 March 2022 08:53

Mark Goichmann

The buildup and the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to hike interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the first time since 2018 on Wednesday certainly affected the monetary policies of other central bankers, including the Bank of England (BoE). British monetary policymakers raised the base rate for a third time over a period of months, to 0.75% from 0.5%. After this decision the Pound fell to the U.S. Dollar from 1.3200 to 1.3100 and at first sight this may seem to be paradoxical or controversial after such a rise. But there is solid logic behind it.
21 January 2022 09:20

Mark Goichmann

In order to understand the movement of EURUSD it is important to look at the inflation rates in both the United States and in Europe. The Consumer price index (CPI) data released for the Eurozone on Thursday also provides important economic input for the movement of the currency pair to be explained. The CPI for Europe rose moderately in December to 5.0% year-on-year from 4.9% in November compared to 7% in the United States for the same period. These figures show that the pace at which prices rose in Europe was not so steep as in the U.S.
23 December 2021 12:58

Mark Goichmann

The U.S. Dollar has been vulnerable to investors’ mood swings over the last few days. The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) was breaking the limits in the beginning of the week, but lost ground at 96.7 points as omicron-variant risks appeared to be milder than previously expected. The DXY index fell to 96 points on Thursday despite positive developments in the U.S. economy that grew by 2.3% year-on-year in Q3 2021 vs the expected 2.1%. Consumer confidence in December rose to 115.8 points vs the expected 110.8 points and the previous 111.9 points.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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