A while back, we published an analysis on EURHUF in which we were presenting a possible bearish scenario on the Hungarian Forint, a scenario that since that moment has been confirmed.
Today we are again looking at interesting opportunities on the HUF, with swing traders possibly looking for re-entries for the new leg down:
This A-B-C pattern has been confirmed by a break of the 307.80 level on weeklies, with price now correcting back into the 310 key area.
Last week we were signaling possibly interesting scenarios on the Hungarian Forint, with price being at a key level (310) at the time.
Now price is testing the 306 level, after turning 310 into a Key resistance for short-term. As this level has resisted a new test last week, now it should become the pivotal point for bull/bear scenarios, as the failed attempt at 310 further strengthened the importance of this psychological level.
On the background of yesterday's mentioned mid-term scenario, the market is now offering a short-term setup with great potential in terms of risk/reward. The key level is 310, where the bears could take control and drive the pair back lower into the 308-308.20 area. Stops for this setup start right above 310.60.
On the other hand, a break of 310.60 should lead the pair up to 312.80 and then 316.50, as the breakout mentioned yesterday will be confirmed as a false breakout.
Since the beginning of 2014, with the rare exceptions of some brief spikes, the Hungarian currency has ranged between 295 and 320 HUF per Euro.
Compared to the steady drop of the Forint of 2008-2009, the recent 3 year-period 2014-2016 can be considered one of relative stability. HUF is technically still in a bearish uptrend compared to the EUR and USD, however there are signs that a possible correction could be showing its first signs.
The EURUSD pair is probably about to break from the tight 150pips range where it was stuck for exactly 1month. As the market players are setting up for a new large move, we have 2 swing setups that may be helpful for traders.
Yesterday we published a short-term bullish scenario for the USDJPY pair , which worked perfectly in spite of the broad bearish sentiment on the JPY pairs. This goes to show that even in bearish trends short-term opportunities could prove very lucrative if proper risk management rules are respected.
Today we go back to the same scenario chart, with an update:
The market sentiment is mixed this morning, with the bulls finding it hard to hold on to recent gains, while obvious bearish pressure is building up ahead of 101.50.
Yesterday we had a look at the swing scenarios for USDJPY and we signaled a moment of high volatility moment in the market, a situation likely to create great bullish and bearish opportunities for traders after the BoJ Interest Rate decision.
As it is often the case with surprise moves in interest rates, yesterday bears took absolute control and managed to push the price just a few pips shy of the 100.00 key level in just 2 trading sessions. But volatility has not dried out yet, as the pair is now under strong influence of the FOMC statement from last night.
After last night's fundamentally-based moves, USDJPY is now at a turning point, with interesting scenarios shaping up for bulls and bears alike.
Because of price playing around key daily levels with potential of strong moves either way, today's opportunities seem particularly interesting for swing traders. But short-term traders could also find great areas to buy and sell on intraday moves.
On the upside, since price is approaching a key support level and now pulling back from the daily highs, bulls could take advantage of great risk/reward opportunities in the 101.75-101.
Today we have a look at EURUSD - a pair that seems to be at a very interesting technical level as we speak.
The narrow 1.1204-1.1214 area functioned very well in the past as resistance, then support. Now price has come to retest it as a resistance.
Possible scenarios here:
Will the bears find major support for a drop here? In this case, resistance at 1.1204 should see the pair descend towards the 1.1150 support area, then 1.1083. If the bears fail to regain control here, buyers will probably take advantage of a breakout of 1.
Analysts are trained to see charts and markets in terms of possibilities: there are thousands of ways the market could move, and they try to know and study them all.
Traders, being closer to the action, must look at things differently. For them, the markets and the charts are full of opportunities - out of those thousands of ways the market can go, they are interested in those areas and moments offering a window of opportunity.
Today, Gold is giving us a rather interesting picture, which I would like to discuss with you today.