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Market Overview
UK May Already Be in A Recession
The long-drawn-out
Brexit, the repeated rejection of a plan by parliament, the forced resignation
of Theresa May, the extension of a deadline and the fact that both candidates
for the position of prime minister – Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt – have said
that the possibility of a Northern Ireland backstop is dead, add to the risk of
a no-deal Brexit. This risk, according to The Guardian, may have pushed the UK
economy into a recession already, as one of the country’s economic forecasters
has said.
This news came out
late yesterday, just before the results of who will be the new prime minister is
set to be released this morning. The expectations are that Johnson will be
moving into 10 Downing Street but before this possibility unfolds, the National
Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said there is a one in four
chance the country is currently in a recession. Stagnated growth and business
investments, along with the sharp Pound drop, all contribute to the situation
that the UK finds itself in now.
NIESR forecast is
that GDP will decline in the third quarter, but it also forecasts that growth
will be up 0.2 percent in the same period.
“The
short-term outlook for the UK economy is very murky indeed, with a significant
risk that a severe economic downturn will begin within the next six months,”
NIESR said.
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