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Market Overview
Predictions for the 2020 Oil Market are Turning Sour
A few months ago,
predictions were that the oil market for 2020 would be the one to look out for
as “many market commentators predicted
that if $100/bbl-oil was going to make a comeback, it would happen in 2020,”
according to Bloomberg. But the release of the first official assessment of
2020 by the International Energy Agency on Friday shows persistent surpluses
could be accumulated next year. This does not indicate rising prices, which were
previously predicted and the reason why investors kept a keen eye on the oil
market.
"The
balances for 2020 were already worrisome, and the downgrade in demand we are
contemplating put them potentially in the ugly category," said Roger
Diwan, an OPEC watcher at consultant IHS Markit Ltd.
The main
reasons for this switch in the forecast are: a slowing global economy, rising
shale production and the prospect of a trade war.
As the oil
market stands, it is already showing signs of supply potentially overweighing
demand. If this forecast becomes a reality, OPEC and Saudi Arabian and Russian
alliances may be forced to continue its output cut in order to avoid stored
excess supply on a global scale.
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