Market Overview

15 April 2022

ECB is Getting Rough

During its meeting on Thursday the European Central Bank (ECB)  trumpeted a more hawkish tune when revealing its monetary policy perspectives. The ECB plans to reduce its bond-buying program under APP to 30 billion Euros in May and to 20 billion Euros in June from the current 40 billion Euros a month. The program itself is planned to be terminated somewhere during Q3 2022.

By declaring this the ECB has joined the approach of other major central banks that have already lifted interest rates, but without actually doing so. It would be perceived as a clear sign from European policymakers that the ECB will begin reducing its monetary stimulus.

It is worth noting that the ECB has less opportunities to tighten monetary policy as the European economy is suffering from the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, soaring costs of fuel and other resources. Such negative conditions hinder the ECB from being stricter when  scaling back its quantitative easing programs. However, blistering inflation has forced monetary policymakers to turn hawkish, partially sacrificing economic growth.

Thus, the initial reaction of the market to the ECB’s statement was quite the opposite of the usual response to monetary tightening. The Euro dropped to 1.07500 to the Dollar, rebounding slightly to 1.08000 later in the day. The perspectives of the recession in the Eurozone accompanied by inflation are not seen to be inspiring investors. The Federal Reserve (Fed), in contrary, has a more forceful policy as it is set to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points to 1.00% in May.

Consequently, the misbalances between the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed may be preserved or it may even seesaw down after the ECB’s actions. This discrepancy along with the weaker economic perspectives of the Eurozone may push the EURUSD lower. After a consolidation, the Euro may tumble to 1.07000 and go even deeper.

 

Disclaimer:

Analysis and opinions provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes and don't represent a recommendation or investment advice by TeleTrade.

Mark Goichmann
Market Focus

Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

Open Demo Account
I understand and accept the Privacy Policy and agree that my name and contact details can be used by TeleTrade to contact me about the information I have selected.
23 International Awards
Have a question?

We are ready to assist you in every step of your trading experience
by providing 24/5 multilingual customer support.

Follow us

Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Prior to trading, you should take into consideration your level of experience and financial situation. TeleTrade strives to provide you with all the necessary information and protective measures, but, if the risks seem still unclear to you, please seek independent advice.

© 2011-2022 Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd

Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd is registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) under registration number HE272810 and is licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 158/11.

The company operates in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID).

The content on this website is for information purposes only. All the services and information provided have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") and/or any third-party information providers provide the services and information without warranty of any kind. By using this information and services you agree that under no circumstances shall TeleTrade have any liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage in whole or part caused by reliance on such information and services.

TeleTrade cooperates exclusively with regulated financial institutions for the safekeeping of clients' funds. Please see the entire list of banks and payment service providers entrusted with the handling of clients' funds.

Please read our full Terms of Use.

To maximise our visitors' browsing experience, TeleTrade uses cookies in our web services. By continuing to browse this site you agree to our use of cookies.

Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd currently provides its services on a cross-border basis, within EEA states (except Belgium) under the MiFID passporting regime, and in selected 3rd countries. TeleTrade does not provide its services to residents or nationals of the USA.

Material posted here is solely for information purposes and reliance on this may lead to losses. Past performances are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Choose your language/location