These week was fairly quiet. The main event of this week was the release of the Fed's latest minutes of the monetary policy meeting in March. The minutes showed that Fed officials were divided. Two officials voted for an interest rate hike in March.
According to the minutes, Fed officials noted the Fed should be cautious in raising its interest rate further, noting that global economic and financial developments posed risks to the U.S. economy.
But the Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a speech in New York on Thursday that the U.S. economy continued to progress and the U.S. labour market continued to strengthen. She pointed out that the Fed remained on track for further interest rate hikes.
Nonetheless, it is unlikely that the Fed would hike its interest rate in April. Fed officials need more information to be convinced for a vote for an interest rate hike. They will likely monitor the release of the inflation data next week.
Oil prices remained in focus. Market participants are awaiting the meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, which is scheduled to be in Doha on April 17. Oil prices climbed this week on hopes for a deal on the freeze of the oil output at January levels. But there are doubts that the freeze of the output will be enough to balance the oil market. If a deal is not reached on April 17, oil prices will drop significantly.
It is likely that the currency pair EURUSD will rise toward the resistance level at $1.1500 or at $1.1600, if there are be negative news from the U.S. or there are be negative news from China and there are no negative economic data from the Eurozone.
If the U.S. economic data is better than expected and in case of the negative economic data from the Eurozone, the currency pair EURUSD may test the support level at $1.1300 or $1.1200.
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