Market Overview

22 January 2016

WEEKLY REVIEW: further stimulus measures by the European Central Bank?

Falling oil prices, concerns over the slowdown in the Chinese economy and possible stimulus measures by the European Central Bank (ECB) dominated the global markets this week. The ECB President Mario Draghi hinted at a press conference on Thursday that the central bank may add further stimulus measures at its meeting in March as downside risks rose.

It looks like before the ECB's interest decision in December. Draghi said in October that the central bank will review its stimulus measures at the next monetary policy meeting, and the central bank added further stimulus measures at its next meeting in December.

It is likely that the ECB will add further stimulus measures in March if oil prices continue to decline or remain at current levels.

Official data from China showed this week that the Chinese economy expand 6.8% in the fourth quarter, after a 6.9% in the third quarter. In 2015 as whole, China's economy grew 6.9%, after a 7.3% increase in 2014. It was the slowest growth since 1990.

China will remain in focus. It is likely that the weaker-than-expected economic data from China will weigh on global stock markets and support gold.

Regarding the U.S. economic data, the data was mixed this week. Inflation remain at low levels.

It is likely that the currency pair EURUSD will rise toward the resistance level at $1.0900 or at $1.1000, if the U.S. economic data will be negative or there will be negative news from China and no negative news from the Eurozone.

If the U.S. economic data will be positive and in case of the negative news from the Eurozone, the currency pair EURUSD may test the level at 1.0700.

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