Two speculations were in focus this week: speculation that the Fed will start raising its interest rate in December and speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will add further stimulus measures next month.
The Fed released its latest monetary policy meeting minutes on Wednesday. The Fed said that an interest rate hike in December is possible, but it will depend on the incoming economic data. The U.S. economic data remained mixed. The U.S. consumer price inflation slightly rose in October, while the industrial production dropped.
I think that Fed officials are awaiting the release of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, next week and the release of the November labour market data on December 04. If this data meets expectations or is better than expected, the Fed will likely hike its interest rate in December.
The ECB President Mario Draghi said today that the ECB is ready to use "all the instruments" to boost inflation in the Eurozone, adding that the inflation in the Eurozone should be raised "as quickly as possible".
Comments by several officials also suggest that the ECB is likely to add further stimulus measures in December.
The foreign exchange market is likely to remain volatile as market participants will continue to look for further clues for the Fed's and ECB' monetary policy.
It is likely that the currency pair EURUSD will test the resistance level at $1.0763 or at $1.0800, if the U.S. economic data will negative and there will be no negative news from the Eurozone.
If the U.S. economic data is positive and in case of the negative news from the Eurozone, the currency pair EURUSD may test the low of April 14 at 1.0531 or the low of March 13 at $1.0461.
Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75.72% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Prior to trading, you should take into consideration your level of experience and financial situation. TeleTrade strives to provide you with all the necessary information and protective measures, but, if the risks seem still unclear to you, please seek independent advice.
© 2011-2022 Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd
Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd is registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) under registration number HE272810 and is licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 158/11.
The company operates in accordance with the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID).
The content on this website is for information purposes only. All the services and information provided have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") and/or any third-party information providers provide the services and information without warranty of any kind. By using this information and services you agree that under no circumstances shall TeleTrade have any liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage in whole or part caused by reliance on such information and services.
TeleTrade cooperates exclusively with regulated financial institutions for the safekeeping of clients' funds. Please see the entire list of banks and payment service providers entrusted with the handling of clients' funds.
Teletrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd currently provides its services on a cross-border basis, within EEA states (except Belgium) under the MiFID passporting regime, and in selected 3rd countries. TeleTrade does not provide its services to residents or nationals of the USA.