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Market Overview
Weekly review: Same game – same players – same results until now
The Greek drama continues. There were several rounds of debt talks between Athens and its lenders, but there is still no deal. The procedure is the same: the Greek provides a proposal. First comments by EU officials are optimistic. But they say that they need time to check a proposal closely. Later they say that a proposal is not enough.
It seems that Greece's lenders need a deal more than Greece itself. The Greek government makes some changes and wait what its creditors say. Perhaps, Athens waits for a default to start from zero.
EU officials fear the possible consequences of a Greek default. So I think a deal will be reached by June 30. In my opinion, Greece's lenders will give in more than Athens.
Speculation on the interest rate hike receded a little into the background. The U.S. economic data showed the country's seems to recover from the weak first quarter, but the manufacturing and services sectors remained weak last month. U.S. exporters were hurt by a stronger U.S. dollar.
Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the Fed could raise its interest rate twice this year, starting in September. So his comments should reassure markets. The possible interest rate hike should play a small role next week.
Markets are expected to be volatile as investors remained focussed on the Greek debt problem. It is likely that the currency pair EURUSD will test the level $1.1000, maybe even the level $1.0900, if a deal between Greece and its creditors is not reached. If the results of the debt talks are positive, the currency pair EURUSD may test the level $1.1300 or $1.1400.
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