Market Overview

5 June 2015

Weekly review: speculation on the Fed’s interest rate hike and the Greek debt remain in focus

This week is not over now, but it has been a turbulent week. Market participants were concentrated on the U.S. economic data and the Greek debt crisis. The U.S. labour market data is scheduled to be released today. Analysts expect that U.S. unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.4% in May. The U.S. economy is expected to add 227,000 jobs in May, after adding 223,000 jobs in April.

If the U.S. labour market data is better than expected, the currency pair EUR/USD could test the support level at around 1.1100. If the U.S. labour market data is weaker than expected, the currency pair EUR/USD could test the resistance level at 1.1380 (high of June 04).

The better-than-expected U.S. labour data could add to speculation that the Fed may start to hike its interest rate sooner than expected. But even if the U.S. labour market data is better than expected in May, it is unlikely that the Fed starts to hike its interest rate this month. The U.S. economic data was mixed. There are no signs of a strong improvement in the U.S. economy in the second quarter. Some Fed officials changed their tone. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that the Fed should delay its first interest rate hike until the first half of 2016.

There is also no progress in the debt talks between Greece and its creditors. Athens plans to bundle its repayment of IMF loans in June. Greece have to repay of around $1.7 billion IMF loans. Market participants hope that a deal will be signed soon. But I think that it will take time to sign a new agreement. The Greek default is also possible.

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