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Market Overview
EURUSD: where is the end of the decline?
I remember
as I conducted the seminar about the euro in May 2013 and I said that the euro
would decline although the euro was climbing. Some seminar participants disagreed
with me. One and half year later, I have never expected that the euro will
decrease in such pace.
EURSUD
monthly, May 2013
The euro
has broken through the sufficient levels at 1.3000 and at 1.2744. It has last
only one month. In the meantime, Eurozone’s single currency fell to 1.2358.
There is a
question: where is the end of the decline?
From the
fundamental view, it doesn’t look well for the euro. The divergence between monetary
policies in Europe and the United States is getting bigger. The Fed has decided
to end its bond-buying program, but to keep unchanged its interest rates for a
"considerable time".
The European
Central Bank (ECB) is willing to add further stimulus measures. The ECB
President Mario Draghi said on November 17 that the central bank could purchase
government bonds.
The euro
dropped on last Friday after the ECB reiterated that the ECB is prepared to add
further stimulus measures if needed. Investors speculate that the central bank
is moving closer to launch the quantitative easing programme.
I think
that the level of EURUSD at some about 1.2000 is realistic.
From the
technical view, the euro could decline toward the support level at 1.2326. Then
we could see a pullback to the level at 1.2744.
But there
is also a possibility that the euro will pull back from the support line at
about 1.2465 and we could see a pullback to the level at 1.2744.
EURSUD
monthly, November 20, 2013
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