The single European currency was steady above 1.1850 against the U.S. Dollar before noon, and then it even jumped to the 1.19 area despite a set of negative signals from the data presented by IHS Markit. However, it was a widely anticipated bad gift during the current epidemic situation, and so it could not really cook or spoil the real Euro goose. Some virtuous American folks may call it their Thanksgiving turkey, if the Greenback would rise instead of the Euro, in the lead-up to family celebrations in the United States. Just as Thanksgiving itself has been plagued by viral spikes, the U.S.
The Chinese Yuan, or Renminbi, is almost unmoved today as People's Bank of China (PBoC) kept its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) steady at 3.85% for the eighth month in a row since April. That is a major lending rate applied for corporate and household loans, when another benchmark, a five-year LPR, which influences the pricing of mortgages, remained at 4.65% per annum. The interest rates in China are now almost 0.
The pandemic of coronavirus pushed global debt levels to new highs of $272 trillion in the third quarter of 2020, rising by 6.7%, an unprecedented level since 2016. The level of the global debt is expected to top $277 trillion by the end of 2020, according to the Institute for International Finance (IFF) Global Debt Monitor. This would represent a debt-to-GDP ratio of 365%.
In 2019, IFF recorded the rise of the global debt by $10 trillion or just 4% to $255 trillion. Global GDP last year, according to the United Nations data, rose by 2.3% only.
This week, the global markets are still forming a contradictory movement but with a rather stable sentiment. October's nationwide retail sales data from the United States, which were released on Tuesday, may hardly be called a determinative factor, but the figures left a negative trail of smoke. Despite the excellent third quarter financial reports of big store chains like Walmart discount hypermarkets and groceries or Home Depot, a large home improvement retailer, their shares were trading lower.
U.S. retail sales rose by 0.
The economic agenda of the week started with generally positive signals from Asia. A weekend trade deal fostered hopes of a fuller recovery from the shocks of this year, at least for the Asia-Pacific region, after 15 Asia-Pacific economies including China and Japan, agreed to reduce future tariffs. Meanwhile in Japan, the gross domestic product (GDP) gained 5.0% in Q3 versus Q2 2020, which was better than 4.4% expected by Bloomberg expert poll, also comparing to the previous quarter, during which the economy dropped 8.2%. A growth in the external demand component was at 2.
Oil prices have risen significantly since the beginning of November, when the North Sea Brent benchmark traded below $37.5 per barrel. By noon in Europe on Wednesday, November 11, the quotes even exceeded $45 per barrel, as a vibrant response to widespread hopes for Pfizer's anti-COVID vaccine to come and save the world demand for fuel soon. Despite the fact that other fragments of fundamental reality are less stable, and it could remain so at least for several months.
The "wait and see" mood is once again prevailing on global markets today as Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State and a former director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), remarked on Tuesday: "There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration". Mr Pompeo told this when answering a question of one journalist, when the transition of power procedures may start and about contacts with Biden's team on this point, the talk suddenly took place at a regular press conference on the routine foreign affairs agenda.
On Monday, markets were woken from a nap by an unexpected welcome surprise. With one accord, and for a few hours, the trading community even seemed to have entirely forgotten all the threadbare media refrains concerning the U.S. election agenda. A set of major European indexes soared by five to seven percent, quickly starting to storm all of their respective multi-month top levels, with the French CAC40 exceeding the best summer quotes, and the U.S. broad market S&P500 index even hit its new record all-time highs.
The U.S. S&P 500 broad market index soared above a 3500 landmark amidst the election uncertainty. At least one possible secret of such a poker-faced behaviour of the stock market could be Wall Street's bet on a probable Republican held Senate that may just block any corporate tax moves or other hasty election pledges by a Democratic Joe Biden administration. If, of course, the state courts or the U.S. Supreme Court will recognise Biden as a legal winner of the election, although it might be fitting to remember that there is many a slip ’twixt the cup and the lip.
Flighty financial markets are closely monitoring the U.S election saga that is still unwinding after Election Day on November 3. As Democratic nominee Joe Biden gets more and more votes, risky assets and currencies against the U.S. Dollar are seen to be getting more support. This trend is not only supported by the democratic promise to approve the large relief bill of $2.2 trillion, but also by hopes of smoothing trade tensions and geopolitical confrontation with China that would most likely improve global trade in investments.
This sentiment is supported by rising stock indexes that gained 1.