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18.01.2011 08:47

Asian session: The euro weakened

04:30 Japan Industrial output (November) final 1.0%
04:30 Japan Industrial output (November) final Y/Y 5.8%

The euro weakened for a second day against the dollar and the yen on speculation an agreement among European finance ministers will fail to contain the region’s debt crisis.
The single currency fell versus 13 of its 16 major counterparts as the Euro-area ministers indicated after a meeting yesterday they don’t face immediate pressure to tame the crisis, while pledging to boost the safety net for debt-strapped nations. 
Australia’s dollar dropped against all the main currencies on speculation China’s central bank will take more steps to tighten monetary policy, curbing demand for higher- yielding assets.
The dollar advanced against 12 of its 16 most-traded counterparts before a government report that economists said will show U.S. building permits increased last month.
Building permits rose to a 555,000 annual pace in December from 544,000 in November, according to a separate  survey before the Commerce Department report tomorrow.

EUR/USD: the pair shown low in the field of $1,3260. Become stronger above a mark $1,3300 later.
GBP/USD: the pair become stronger in around $1,5930.
USD/JPY: the pair  decreased in around Y82,40.
The EU finance ministers meet in Brussels today and the monthly IEA oil market report is due at 0900GMT. German data at 1000GMT includes the January ZEW survey, where the expectations and conditions index are expected to both improve to 8.4 and 83.2.
UK data starts at 0930GMT with the UK DCLG House Price Index and also UK December inflation data due. CPI is expected to rise 0.7% m/m, 3.4% y/y with core-CPI at 2.7% y/y. Meanwhile, RPI is expected to gain 0.8% m/m, 4.8% y/y with RPIX at 0.7% m/m and 4.8% y/y.
US data starts at 1330GMT with the NY Fed Empire State Survey, where the index is expected to rise to a reading of 14.0 in January after see-sawing in the previous two months. Annual revisions will be included with this month's data. At 1400GMT, the Bank of Canada makes it's interest rate announcement and economists agree on unchanged rates. 
They all believe some of Canada's downside risks to growth will be alleviated by the new United States fiscal package for stimulation of that economy and thus imports from Canada, but that the BOC will prefer to wait and see.
Further US data includes the TIC data at 1400GMT, the weekly MNI Capital Goods Index at 1430GMT, the Housing Market Index from the NAHB at 1500GMT and the weekly MNI Retail Trade Index at 1530GMT. Late US data then sees the weekly ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence Index at 2200GMT.

18.01.2011 08:43

Forex: Monday's review

Market Focus

  • Donald John Trump will be the 45th president of the United States
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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