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14.12.2010 08:32

Asian session:

Data:
04:30     Japan     Industrial output (October) final    -2.0%    
04:30     Japan     Industrial output (October) final Y/Y    4.3%   

The dollar was near a one-week low against the yen on prospects yields on U.S. assets will shrink as Federal Reserve policy makers prepare to discuss interest rates and bond purchases.
The greenback held yesterday’s loss against the euro on speculation the Fed will signal today it’s open to increasing debt purchases beyond the $600 billion already announced.
New Zealand’s dollar was near a 10-year low against Australia’s currency after a report showed retail sales in the smaller nation slid by the most since 1997.
New Zealand’s retail sales declined 2.5 percent in October, Statistics New Zealand said in Wellington. The drop was the biggest since May 1997.
U.S. retail sales rose 0.6 percent in November after adding 1.2 percent in October, according to the median estimate of economists in a survey before Commerce Department data today.
The euro was little changed ahead of data forecast to show German investor confidence rose for a second month and a confidence vote in Italy that may topple Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s government.
An index of German investor and analyst expectations increased to 3.9 this month from 1.8 in November, according to a survey of economists.

EUR/USD: at the morning the pair become stronger above a mark $1,3450.

GBP/USD: at the morning the pair become stronger above a mark $1,5900.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased in around Y83,20.

UK data at 0930GMT includes the latest DCLG House Price Index as  well as inflation data, where CPI is expected to come in at 0.3% m/m,  3.2% y/y with core CPI at 2.7% y/y.
The main European data release for Tuesday is the ZEW data for December, where the expectations index is seen rising to a reading of +3.8 with the conditions index rising to +84.0. At 1000GMT, EMU industrial production
is expected to come in at 1.1% m/m, 7.4% y/y.
US data starts at 1245GMT with the weekly ICSC shopping center sales data, although the main data starts at 1330GMT with retail sales and PPI. Retail sales are expected to rise 0.7% in November. Industry auto sales stable in the month, while gasoline prices rose further according to AAA. Sales excluding motor vehicles are expected to rise 0.7% on the higher gasoline prices as well as solid early holiday sales. Producer prices are expected to rise 0.7% in November. Both food and energy prices are expected to move higher. The core PPI is expected to rise 0.3% after the surprise 0.6% drop in October, when seasonal adjustment issues with vehicle prices were a key factor.
The much-awaited FOMC announcement will be the main feature of the US session with the announcement due around 1915GMT.

14.12.2010 08:28

Forex: Monday's review

Market Focus

  • Donald John Trump will be the 45th president of the United States
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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