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19.09.2016 12:31

European session review: euro range trading

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

8:00 Eurozone balance of payments, without taking into account seasonal adjustments, in July 39.1 31.5 bn

10:00 Germany's Bundesbank Monthly Report

The yen strengthened against the US dollar, updating the Friday's high. Experts point out that the US currency remained under pressure in the run-up to the Fed meeting. Few people believe that the Fed will raise rates this week, but recent data reinforce the view that the policy tightening could occur before the end of the year, probably in December. In addition, market participants adjust their positions ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting. On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan completes the two-day meeting and will publish a report on the measures taken to combat deflation. Markets will focus on whether the Bank of Japan will lower its key interest rate or otherwise change policies.

The euro traded in a range against the US dollar, near Friday's low. Little influenced by the data for Germany and the euro zone. Statistical Office Destatis reported that the number of permits issued for housing construction in Germany, grew strongly in the first seven months, registering the largest increase in six years. According to the report, during the period from January to July, the number of permits issued for housing construction jumped by 26.1 percent year on year to 213.600 units. The last time such a large number of permits (for 7-month period) was in 2000 - when 216,000 permits were approved, the agency said. Of the total number of permits issued in January-July 179,600 were for new homes, which is 23.2 percent more compared to last year. Part of the last change was due to increase in the number of permits for the construction of shelters for refugees.

With regard to the data for the euro area, the ECB announced that the seasonally adjusted and corrected for the number of working days, the balance of payments surplus in July fell to 21.0 bln euro, compared to EUR 29.5 billion. In June. Analysts predicted that the surplus will decrease to 27.2 billion. Euro. The total current account in the last 12 months (to July) showed a surplus of 343.2 billion euros, equivalent to 3.0% of eurozone's GDP.

In addition, investors are preparing for the Fed meeting. It is unlikely that the Fed will raise rates, but investors will assess the tone of the official statement of the central bank, hoping to get hints. According to the futures market, the likelihood of tighter monetary policy is 12% in September and 55.0% in December.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair was trading in the $ 1.1150- $ 1.1173 range


GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3073


USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell Y101.69

19.09.2016 11:50

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