Search

Client support: Phone: (+357) 22314160

FX & CFD trading involves significant risk

News

Show news:


19.09.2016 06:15

Sep BoJ: 'We Are Not Optimistic'; Lowering USD/JPY Forecasts - Goldman Sachs

"This week's 'comprehensive assessment' from the BoJ could be one of two things.

On the one hand, it could be a fundamental reassessment of the policy stance, presumably with a view to adding stimulus. Given that the BoJ is missing its inflation forecast by a mile, this is certainly a reasonable expectation.

On the other hand, it could essentially be a PR exercise, selling the benefits of negative rates after the public backlash from the financial sector following the January IOER cut. This would see policy largely unchanged, with a view to building consensus around existing policies and setting the stage, perhaps, for further rate cuts down the road.

We outlines our expectations for the upcoming policy meeting. We are not optimistic. Similar to the ECB, focus at the BoJ has shifted toward making the existing policy stance sustainable, as opposed to adding stimulus to meet the inflation target. A particular risk - not our base case - is that the BoJ could take steps to bear steepen the yield curve, to help the financial sector following the dramatic curve flattening since January. In our view, such a step could further compound market confusion over BoJ objectives and exacerbate the damage done to longer-term inflation expectations year-to-date.

We are lowering our $/JPY forecast to 108, 110 and 115 in 3-, 6- and 12-months (from 115, 120 and 125 previously). Our 3-month target of 108 reflects our view that the BoJ will continue to ease at upcoming meetings, likely via further IOER cuts. The reduction in the 12-month forecast reflects our view that such easing is not enough to reverse the adverse dynamic that has taken hold since January. For that to be the case, more radical steps such as yield caps or price level targeting are needed, which we believe are not on the BoJ's radar screen at the present time".

Copyright © 2016 Goldman Sachs, eFXnews™

Market Focus

  • Donald John Trump will be the 45th president of the United States
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
January 2017
  • 2017
  • 2016
  • 2015
  • 2014
  • 2013
  • 2012
  • 2011
  • 2010
  • 2009
  • 2008
  • 2007
  • 2006
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2003
  • 2002
Mon
Tue
Wed
Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31

Quotes

All posted material is a marketing communication solely for informational purposes and reliance on this may lead to loss. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Please read our full disclaimer.

To maximize our visitors browsing experience TeleTrade uses cookies in our web services. By continuing to browse this site you agree to our use of cookies. If you disagree, you may change your browser settings at any time. Read more

  • © 2011-2017 TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd is registered as a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) under registration number HE272810 and licensed by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) under license number 158/11.

    The company operates in accordance with Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID).

  • The information on this website is for informational purposes only. All the services and information provided have been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable. TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd ("TeleTrade") and/or any third-party information providers provide the services and information without warranty of any kind. By using this information and services you agree that under no circumstances shall TeleTrade have any liability to any person or entity for any loss or damage in whole or part caused by reliance on such information and services.

  • TeleTrade cooperates with SafeCharge Limited, which is an electronic money institution authorized and regulated by the Central Bank of Cyprus and is a principal member of MasterCard Europe and Visa Europe. We also cooperate with Moneybookers and Neteller, which offer electronic e-wallet services authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

    Please read our full Terms of Use.

  • To maximize our visitors browsing experience TeleTrade uses cookies in our web services. By continuing to browse this site you agree to our use of cookies. If you disagree, you may change your browser settings at any time. Read more

    TeleTrade-DJ International Consulting Ltd currently does not provide its services to residents or nationals of the USA, and also doesn't provide retail Forex and CFD accounts to residents or nationals of Belgium.

Служба технической поддержки:
8-800-200-31-00, support@teletrade-dj.com

  • Онлайн-консультация
  • Заказать звонок
  • Написать письмо
Connect with Us
Share on
social networks
Online
consultant
Request a callback
Top Page