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09.08.2016 12:19

European session review: the US dollar strengthened against the pound

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

5:45 Switzerland's unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) July 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

6:00 Germany Current Account 18.4 26.3 bln in June

6:00 Germany Trade balance (not seasonally adjusted), 24.9 billion on June 21

6:00 Japan Change in orders for equipment (preliminary data), y / y in July -19.9% ​​-19.6%

8:30 UK Industrial Production m / m in June -0.6% 0.1% 0.1%

8:30 UK Industrial Production y / y in June 1.4% 1.6% 1.6%

8:30 UK Manufacturing production m / m in June -0.6% -0.2% -0.3%

8:30 UK Manufacturing production, y / y in June 1.5% 1.3% 0.9%

8:30 UK total trade balance in June -4.2 -5.1

The pound depreciated significantly against the dollar, updating the monthly lows. Certain influence on the dynamics of trade had statistics on Britain. The Office for National Statistics said that industrial output rose by 0.1 percent compared to May, confirming the forecasts of economists. At the end of May the production declined by 0.6 percent (revised from -0.5 percent). Output in the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.3 percent, which was slower than the fall of 0.6 percent in May. Experts predicted a decrease of 0.2 percent. Annual industrial production growth accelerated to 1.6 percent, in line with expectations, compared with 1.4 per cent. Manufacturing output increased by 0.9% y/y, after rising 1.5 percent in May. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.3 percent. For the three-month period to June, the volume of industrial production increased by 2.1 percent. This was the highest growth since the third quarter of 1999.

A separate report showed that the deficit in trade in goods widened in June to 12,4 billion in May (revised from 9,880 billion). Last change reflects an increase in exports by 1.0 billion pounds to 24.6 billion., as well as increased imports of 1.8 billion pounds to 37.0 billion. The surplus on trade in services remained unchanged at 7.3 billion pounds. As a result, the overall trade deficit amounted to 5.1 billion.

In focus were also statements by the Bank of England and member of the Monetary Policy Committee Ian McCafferty, who pointed to the possibility of expanding monetary stimulus measures if the state of the British economy deteriorates. Recall, last week the Bank of England lowered the benchmark interest rate to a record low level and increased the volume of bond purchases to soften the negative impact of Brexit. In general, the last stimulus program indicates a strong concern for the Bank of England officials about the economic outlook.

The euro is trading flat vs usd. Recall, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany stated that exports rose in June by 0.3% compared to May, while imports by 1.0%. The trade surplus amounted to 21.7 billion euros against 22.1 billion euros in May. At the end of the 2nd quarter exports grew by 0.7%, while imports decreased by 1.6%.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.1097, but then fell back to $ 1.1075

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.2960

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y102.14

Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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