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28.07.2016 12:28

European session review: USD moderately higher against the British pound

The following data was published:

(Time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

6:00 UK House Price Index from Nationwide, m / m in July 0.2% 0% 0.5%

6:00 UK House Price Index from Nationwide, y / y in July 5.1% 4.5% 5.2%

7:55 Germany Change in the number of unemployed in July -6 -3 -7

7:55 Germany Unemployment rate seasonally adjusted 6.1% in July 6.1% 6.1%

9:00 Eurozone index of sentiment in the economy in July 104.4 103.7 104.6

9:00 Eurozone consumer confidence index (final data) July -7.2 -7.9 -7.9

9:00 Eurozone Sentiment Index in the business community July 0.22 0.17 0.39

9:00 Eurozone business confidence index in industry in July -2.8 -3.4 -2.4

12:00 Germany Consumer Price Index m / m (preliminary data) July 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%

12:00 Germany Consumer Price Index y / y (preliminary data) July 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

The euro retreated from a session high against the dollar, but still shows gains. The US currency remains under pressure against the background of the Fed meeting. Recall, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, but gave no clear signals about future plans. The Central Bank indicated that the labor market has strengthened, although six weeks ago it was reported that the pace of job growth has slowed. Fed officials also said that household spending is growing at strong pace and economic activity increased at a moderate pace. In general, the central bank's statement suggests that the economic outlook caused less concern compared with June. However, many investors expected a more explicit guidance on the timing of rate hikes. According to CME Group, FED futures point to 18% probability of a rate hike in September from 27% a day earlier.

Little support for the euro had statistical data for Germany and the euro zone. Germany Ministry of Labor said that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in July fell by 7,000 after a 6000 declining in June. Analysts had expected a drop to 3 000. The unemployment rate remained at around 6.1%, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, the European Commission reported that the index of economic sentiment rose in July to 104.6 points compared with 104.4 points in June. Experts forecasted that the figure will drop to 103.7 points. The final index of sentiment among consumers fell in July from -7.2 points to -7.9 points, confirming the initial assessment and forecasts. Sentiment in the services sector rose to 11.1 from 10.9 in June (revised from 10.8). Analysts had expected a decline to 10.3. Meanwhile, the index of business optimism in industry rose to -2.4 points to -2.8 points in June. It was expected that the index would fall to -3.4 points. Sentiment Index in the business community has improved to 0.39 points from 0.22 points in June. Analysts had forecast a drop to 0.17 points.

The pound depreciated moderately against the dollar, having lost all earned position. Most likely, the market participants have seen in the recent rally an opportunity to sell. Negligible impact had data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), which showed that the volume of car production in the UK continued to rise in June, and reached its highest level in 16 years. However, the SMMT warned that the prospects for further growth are unclear, given the expected negative consequences of Brexit. According to the data, at the end of June production of cars increased by 10.4 percent per year, reaching 158.641 units. This was the eleventh consecutive increase in production and the highest level for the month since 1998. 897,157 units were produced in the first half of the year, which is 13 percent more compared to the same period of 2015. It was the largest gain since mid-year 2000. Export demand has risen by 14.9 percent, and production for the domestic market increased by 7.1 percent.

Later this week, market participants will be watching the results of surveys of companies and consumers in Britain that will see just how much Brexit impacted on the economy. Recall preliminary PMI indices showed a reduction of the country's economy at the fastest pace since 2009.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.1119, but then went back up to $ 1.1080


GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3136


USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y104.47

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