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09.06.2016 18:21

American focus: the US dollar appreciated strongly against most major currencies

The US dollar rose significantly against the euro, by updating a maximum of 6 June and nearer to the psychological level of $ 1.1300. Experts point out that the US currency continues to receive support from the yield spread of bonds and bonds, as well as labor market statistics.

The Labor Department reported that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, a sign that layoffs remain under control, despite the recent slowdown in hiring. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 4,000, reaching 264,000 in the week ending 4 June. Economists had expected 270,000 initial claims. Applications for the week ended May 28 were revised to an increase by 1000 to 268 000. The Labor Department said that no special factors did not affect the index last week. The moving average of four weeks, which helps to smooth out fluctuations in the data, fell by 7,500 last week to 269 500. Applications are below 300 000 for 66 consecutive weeks, the longest streak since 1973. Repeated requests for unemployment benefits fell by 77,000 to 2.095 million in the week ended May 28th.

Attention is also switched to the Fed meeting. The results of the latest poll The Wall Street Journal revealed that the deterioration of the employment situation is likely to cause the Fed to refrain from raising rates at the June meeting. Previously, many economists expect the Central Bank to raise rates in June, but now 52% of respondents believe that the Fed will postpone the decision until July. Meanwhile, 30% of respondents believe that rates will remain unchanged until September. Fed futures rates suggest that the probability of a rate hike in June was 4%, and the chances of an increase in rates are estimated at 27% in July.

The British pound fell moderately against the dollar, reaching a minimum of 7 June, which was due to the widespread strengthening of the US currency and fears regarding the upcoming referendum on the country's withdrawal from the European Union. Little support for the pound has had a positive trade statistics. UK Office for National Statistics reported that the trade deficit shrank in April more than expected, after a record increase in the volume of exports of goods. The volume of exports has jumped by 11.2%, or £ 2,2 billion compared to the previous month, increasing the total value of exports of goods up to £ 26.1 Bln. Imports rose by £ 2 billion to £ 36.6 Bln. For the growth of the export volume of trade deficit narrowed in April to £ 3.29 billion, compared with the revised downward £ 3.53 in March, which was the lowest since September 2015.

The evidence suggests that the recent weakness of the trade data is likely coming to an end. However, sentiment on the pound remained fragile on the eve of the referendum June 23 to the exit of Britain from the EU structure.

The Swiss franc fell against the dollar, having lost almost all of yesterday earned position. The reason for such dynamics was a general recovery of the dollar and the decline in global stock markets. Focus was also a report on the labor market. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said that the unemployment rate in Switzerland to a seasonally adjusted remained at around 3.5 percent, which was slightly above forecasts of experts (+3.4 percent). The unemployment rate in the unadjusted basis decreased to 3.3 percent from 3.5 percent the previous month. The number of unemployed fell by 4,762 from the previous month to 144,778 at the end of May. Youth unemployment, which belongs to the age group 15-24 years, dropped to 3 per cent compared with 3.2 per cent in April.

Market Focus

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  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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