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16.03.2016 13:53

Foreign exchange market. European session: the U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies after the release of the mixed U.S. economic data

Economic calendar (GMT0):

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual)

09:30 United Kingdom Average Earnings, 3m/y January 1.9% 2% 2.1%

09:30 United Kingdom ILO Unemployment Rate January 5.1% 5.1% 5.1%

09:30 United Kingdom Claimant count February -28.4 Revised From -14.8 -9.1 -18

10:00 Eurozone Construction Output, y/y January 0.4% Revised From -0.4% 6%

11:00 U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications March 0.2% -3.3%

12:30 United Kingdom Annual Budget Release

12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases January -1.40 Revised From -1.41 13.51

12:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) January 1.4% Revised From 1.2% 0.5% 2.3%

12:30 U.S. Housing Starts February 1120 Revised From 1099 1150 1178

12:30 U.S. Building Permits February 1204 Revised From 1202 1200 1167

12:30 U.S. CPI, m/m February 0.0% -0.2% -0.2%

12:30 U.S. CPI, Y/Y February 1.4% 0.9% 1.0%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, m/m February 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

12:30 U.S. CPI excluding food and energy, Y/Y February 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%

13:15 U.S. Capacity Utilization February 77.1% 76.9% 76.7%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production (MoM) February 0.8% Revised From 0.9% -0.3% -0.5%

13:15 U.S. Industrial Production YoY February -0.7% -1%

The U.S. dollar traded higher against the most major currencies after the release of the mixed U.S. economic data. The U.S. Commerce Department released the housing market data on Wednesday. Housing starts in the U.S. jumped 5.2% to 1.178 million annualized rate in February from a 1.120 million pace in January, exceeding expectations for an increase to 1.150 million. The increase was mainly driven by rise in starts of single-family homes.

The U.S. Labor Department released consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The U.S. consumer price inflation fell 0.2% in February, in line with expectations, after a flat reading in January.

The index was mainly driven by lower gasoline prices, which slid 13% in February.

On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index decreased to 1.0% in February from 1.4% in January, beating expectations for a fall to 0.9%.

The U.S. consumer price inflation excluding food and energy gained 0.3% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% rise, after a 0.3% increase in January. It was the largest rise since May 2012.

The increase was driven by rents and medical costs.

On a yearly basis, the U.S. consumer price index excluding food and energy increased to 2.3% in February from 2.2% in January, beating expectations for a 2.2% rise.

The Federal Reserve released its industrial production report on Wednesday. The U.S. industrial production slid 0.5% in February, missing expectations for a 0.3% decrease, after a 0.8% rise in January. The decline was mainly driven by a drop in utilities.

Market participants are awaiting the release of the Fed's interest rate decision later in the day. Analysts expect the Fed to keep its monetary policy unchanged.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar despite the strong construction data from the Eurozone. The Eurostat released its construction production data for the Eurozone on Wednesday. Construction production in the Eurozone climbed 3.6% in January, after a 0.7% decline in December.

Civil engineering output rose 1.7% in January, while production in the building sector was up 4.1%.

On a yearly basis, construction output jumped 6.0% in January, after a 0.4% gain in December. December's figure was revised up from a 0.4% drop.

Civil engineering output increased 1.4% year-on-year in January, while production in the building sector climbed 7.1% year-on-year.

The British pound traded lower against the U.S. dollar as the U.K. Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgrades its growth and inflation forecasts. The U.K. economy is expected to expand 2.0% in 2016, down from the previous forecast of 2.4%, and 2.2% in 2017, down from the previous forecast of 2.5%.

Inflation is expected to be 0.7% in 2016, down from the previous forecast of 1.0%, and 1.6% in 2017, down from the previous forecast of 1.8%.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released its labour market data on Wednesday. The U.K. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% in the November to January quarter, in line with expectations.

The claimant count slid by 18,000 people in February, beating expectations for a fall by 9,100, after a decrease of 28,400 people in January. January's figure was revised down from a 14,800 decrease.

Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, climbed by 2.2% in the November to January quarter, after a 2.0% gain in the October to December quarter.

Average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 2.1% in the November to January quarter, in exceeding expectations for a 2.0% gain, after a 1.9% increase in the October to December quarter.

The Bank of England monitors closely the wages growth it considers when to start hiking its interest rate.

The Canadian dollar traded mixed against the U.S. dollar after the release of the positive Canadian economic data. Statistics Canada released manufacturing shipments on Wednesday. Canadian manufacturing shipments rose 2.3% in January, beating expectations for a 0.5% increase, after a 1.4% increase in December. December's figure was revised up from a 1.2% rise. The increase was mainly driven by higher motor vehicle products sales. Motor vehicle rose 9.6% in January, while sales of food climbed 4.6%.

Statistics Canada released foreign investment figures on Wednesday. Foreign investors purchased C$13.51 billion of Canadian securities in January, after a divestment of C$1.40 billion in December. December's figure was revised up from a divestment of C$1.41 billion. The investment was led by Canadian private corporate debt securities.

EUR/USD: the currency pair dropped to $1.1057

GBP/USD: the currency pair declined to $1.4051

USD/JPY: the currency pair rose to Y113.78

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

14:30 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories March 3.88

18:00 U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%

18:00 U.S. FOMC Economic Projections

18:30 U.S. Federal Reserve Press Conference

21:45 New Zealand GDP q/q Quarter IV 0.9% 0.6%

21:45 New Zealand GDP y/y Quarter IV 2.3% 2%

22:05 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks

23:50 Japan Trade Balance Total, bln February -645.9 388.6

Market Focus

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  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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