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09.03.2016 19:19

American focus: the US dollar declined significantly against most major currencies

The euro has appreciated considerably against the US dollar, updating the maximum of the session, which was caused by the correction position before tomorrow's meeting of the ECB, as well as the publication of weak US data. According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, almost all economists (98%) expect that the ECB will take additional measures to support the economy and inflation stabilization. All of these 98% of respondents expect a rate cut on deposits, and nearly three-quarters - increase QE. On average, it is assumed that the ECB deposit rate will be reduced by 10 basis points to -0.40%. The average forecast is for an increase in the volume of bonds repurchase up to € 75 billion per month from the current 60 billion euros.

With regard to statistics, the US Commerce Department reported that wholesale inventories unexpectedly rose in January, as sales fell. This change suggests that companies efforts to reduce inventories may continue in 2016, which in turn will restrain economic growth. According to the report, seasonally adjusted inventories in the warehouses of wholesale trade increased in January by 0.3%, reaching $ 584.2 billion. Experts expect that stocks will fall by 0.2% after the zero change in December (revised from -0.1 %). Compared with January 2015, stocks increased by 2.0%. Component wholesale inventories, which goes into the calculation of GDP - wholesale inventories excluding cars - rose 0.1% in January. In addition, the report showed that wholesale sales of $ 433.1 billion., A decrease of 1.3% compared with December. In annual terms, sales decreased by 3.1%. Also, the Ministry of Commerce said that the ratio of stocks to sales ratio was 1.35 months in January (up to April 2009) vs. 1.33 months in December.

The pound rose against the dollar mildly, returning to a maximum session. Experts point out that investors remain cautious on the eve of the world's Central Bank meeting, which will take place later this month. A slight influence also provided data for the UK. The Office for National Statistics said that industrial production rose by 0.3 percent on a monthly basis, offsetting the decline in December to 1.1 per cent. It was the first increase in three months, and the fastest in five months. However, growth was slightly slower than the expected increase of 0.5 percent. At the same time, manufacturing output grew by 0.7 per cent, faster than expected growth of 0.2 percent. On an annual basis, total production rose by 0.2 percent, while manufacturing output fell by 0.1 per cent. Economists had forecast that total production will grow by 0.2 percent, while manufacturing output will fall by 0.7 percent.

The Canadian dollar rose almost 200 pips against the US dollar, reaching a maximum of 12 November 2015. Support currency was the outcome of the meeting of the Central Bank of Canada, as well as a marked increase in oil prices. As it became known, the Bank of Canada left its key interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, confirming the expectations of experts. "Recent reports indicate that the US economic recovery is continuing at the same time the low level of oil prices will continue to undermine the economy of Canada and other exporting countries.", - Stated in the report of the Central Bank. However, the Central Bank said that the recent recovery in oil prices and other raw materials has allowed the Canadian dollar to recover from multi-year lows. The Bank of Canada noted that the overall risks to inflation are balanced. Meanwhile, the probability of the uncertainty of growth in the financial sector is growing, partly due to the situation in the regions associated with the structural changes in the Canadian economy. According to forecasts of the Bank's growth in the global economy will continue to recover this year, despite the lingering downside risks.

With regard to the dynamics of oil quotations, today jumped more than 3%, helped by data on stocks of petroleum products in the United States, which convinced the market that the demand for gasoline is gradually improving. Oil also got support from speculation that the top oil producers may agree to freeze production in the near future.

US Department of Energy reported that in the week of February 27 - March 4 oil inventories rose 3.88 million barrels to 521.9 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase of 3.5 mln. Barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks fell by 4.5 million barrels to 250.5 million barrels. Analysts had expected stocks to fall 1.5 million barrels.

09.03.2016 17:04

WSE: Session Results

Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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