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05.02.2016 07:02

Foreign exchange market. Asian session: the U.S. dollar gained slightly

Economic calendar (GMT0):

Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

00:30 Australia Retail Sales, M/M December 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index (Preliminary) December 103.2 Revised From 103.5 102.8 102.0

05:00 Japan Coincident Index (Preliminary) December 111.9 111.2

07:00 Germany Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) December 1.5% -0.5% -0.7%

The U.S. dollar climbed against the euro after the recent decline. This week the dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of ten major currencies, fell by 2.4% amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will delay its next rate hike.

Today market participants are waiting for U.S. employment data. The number of employed is expected to have grown by 190,000 in January compared to a rise of 292,000 in December. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the number of initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 285,000 in the week ending January 30. The reading exceeded expectations for growth to 280,000. The number of claims has remained below 300,000 for 48 weeks in a row (the longest series since 1970s).

The Australian dollar fell after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its short-term inflation forecast and 2017 GDP forecast. The GDP is expected to expand by 3% in 2017 compared to an earlier forecast of a 3.5% gain. Inflation is likely to bу 1.5% in 2016 compared to 2.0% expected earlier. The central bank's inflation target range is 2%-3%.

Retail sales volume was unchanged in Australia in December, while economists had expected growth of 0.5%. Sales expanded by 0.4% in the previous month.

EUR/USD: the pair fluctuated within $1.1185-15 in Asian trade

USD/JPY: the pair traded within Y116.55-00

GBP/USD: the pair fell to $1.4545

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

07:45 France Trade Balance, bln December -4.63 -4.4

13:30 Canada Trade balance, billions December -1.99 -2.2

13:30 Canada Unemployment rate January 7.1% 7.1%

13:30 Canada Employment January 22.8 5.5

13:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings January 0% 0.3%

13:30 U.S. Average workweek January 34.5 34.5

13:30 U.S. International Trade, bln December -42.37 -43

13:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate January 5% 5%

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls January 292 190

15:00 Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index January 49.9 50

20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit December 13.95 16

Market Focus

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  • China: Trade Balance, bln, October 49.6 (forecast 51.7)
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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