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20.05.2015 17:58

American focus: the US dollar significantly higher against the yen

The yen depreciated significantly against the US dollar, reaching a two-month low at the same time, due to the expectations of the publication of the minutes of the Fed. The minutes from the Fed is likely to weak data of recent months will be a key theme. The Fed already noted that the weakness of macroeconomic indicators in recent months due solely to temporary factors. Also, the protocol is likely to strengthen the Fed's official stance, according to which the rate can be increased at any meeting, even though the expectations of market participants regarding the first increase at the meeting in September, it will have little impact.

The pound lost previously earned positions against the dollar, returning to the level of opening of the session. Earlier, the pair rose by hawkish minutes of the Bank of England remains at high positions in anticipation of the minutes of FOMC, which may reflect a reluctance to rush to the Central Bank rate increase. With regard to the protocol of the Central Bank of England, they showed that the leaders expected to accelerate the growth of the UK economy in the 2nd quarter. From reports that in May, the nine committee members voted to leave its key interest rate at a record low 0.5%, and the volume of bond purchases - at the level of 375 billion pounds (581.20 billion US dollars). The members of the Committee expect that in the 2nd quarter of the country's economic growth accelerated after a weak start of the year, as the decline in prices for food, energy and other commodities support household incomes and stimulate consumer spending. According to the forecast of experts of the Central Bank, quarterly growth of UK GDP in the 2nd quarter accelerated to 0.7%, said in the minutes. According to official estimates, the growth in the 1st quarter was only 0.3%, but the Bank of England expects that the revision of the data rate close to 0.5%.

The dollar will continue to trade in a narrow range against the euro, expecting output protocol FOMC. RBC Experts point out that the April Fed statement did not contain any surprises. According to the central bank, the weakness of the US economy in the 1st quarter was a one-off phenomenon and not the start of a trend. As regards the situation in the labor market, the Fed did not attach particular importance to the slowdown in the number of jobs outside agriculture in March. It turned out that it was the right decision, because in April, the growth rate of the number of jobs outside agriculture accelerated. RBC Economists expect the Fed meeting minutes of April will reflect these sentiments and confirmed that the Fed is inclined to start tightening monetary policy in September. Markets take into account the likelihood of higher interest rates until January 2016, so that, if the expectations with respect to RBC hints on central bank policy tightening in September materialize, the US dollar should continue to grow.

Also worth noting that today the main negative factor for the euro was again Greece and rumors that the country might not be able to repay the debt to the IMF without the conclusion of new agreements. In addition, German Finance Minister Schaeuble did not rule out the probability of default of Greece.

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