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13.02.2015 07:30

Foreign exchange market. Asian session: U.S. dollar drops across the board after yesterday’s weaker-than-expected retail sales data

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

02:00 China Leading Index January +1.1% +0.9%

06:30 France GDP, q/q (Preliminary) Quarter IV +0.3% +0.1% +0.1%

06:30 France GDP, Y/Y (Preliminary) Quarter IV +0.4% +0.2%

07:00 Germany GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter IV +0.1% +0.3% +0.7%

07:00 Germany GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter IV +1.2% +1.0% +1.6%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies after the weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data. The U.S. retail sales dropped 0.8% in January, missing expectations for a 0.3% decrease, after a 0.9% decline in December. Retail sales excluding automobiles fell 0.9% in January, missing forecasts for a 0.4% decrease, after a 0.9% drop in December. December's figure was revised up from a 1.0% decline.

The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending February 07 in the U.S. rose by 25,000 to 304,000 from 279,000 in the previous week. The previous week's figure was revised down from 278,000. Analysts had expected the number of initial jobless claims to decrease to 278,000.

The U.S. business inventories rose by 0.1% in December, after a 0.2% gain in November. Analysts had expected a 0.2% increase.

The euro strengthened against the greenback as the ECB raised the Emergency Liquidity Assistance cap for Greek banks by 5 billion euro and supported by signs of easing tension between Greece and its euro-area creditors but the outcome of Greece's bailout negotiations is still open. The next meeting is scheduled for Monday. A ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine also supported the single currency.

The Australian dollar booked gains versus the greenback after Royal Bank of Australia's Governor Glenn Stevens speech stating that the government has to increase spending in order to boost demand and that monetary policy, at the current level of interest rates, has become more limited in spurring demand compared to a decade ago but still has some ability to assist the transition the economy is making, and we regarded it as appropriate to provide that support. The bank cut interst rates this month to2.25% after a 17-month pause.

China's Leading Index declined from a previous reading of +1.1% to +0.9% in January. China is Australia's most important trade partner.

New Zealand's dollar added against the greenback in Asian trade. Data on the Food Price Index came in yesterday with a reading of +1.3% in January compared to +0.2% in December.

The Japanese yen traded stronger against the greenback on Friday amid speculations that the Bank of Japan will not expand monetary easing. Now all eyes are on Governor Kuroda and his comments on that matter.

EUR/USD: the euro traded stronger against the greenback

USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar weakened against the yen

GPB/USD: Sterling traded higher against the U.S. dollar

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

07:45 France Non-Farm Payrolls (Preliminary) Quarter IV -0.2% -0.1%

08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, m/m January -0.4% -0.6%

08:15 Switzerland Producer & Import Prices, y/y January -2.1% -1.5%

10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. December 20.0 21.3

10:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Preliminary) Quarter IV +0.2% +0.2%

10:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Preliminary) Quarter IV +0.8% +0.8%

13:30 Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) December -1.4% -0.9%

13:30 U.S. Import Price Index July -2.5% -3.1%

15:00 U.S. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary) February 98.1 98.2

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