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11.02.2015 16:40

Oil: a review of the market situation

Oil prices fell markedly, while dropping below $ 55 (Brent) and $ 49 (WTI), which was associated with the publication of data on stocks of petroleum products in the United States. The Department of Energy has stated that during the week from 31 January to 6 February crude oil reserves rose by 4.9 million barrels to 417.9 million barrels, while the average forecast assumes an increase of 4 million barrels. It is worth emphasizing reserves reached a historical high for the entire period of reference of the statistics (since August 1982). Oil reserves in Cushing terminal rose by 1.2 million barrels to 42.6 million barrels, the highest value for the half year. Distillate stocks fell by 3.3 million barrels to 131.2 million barrels, while analysts had expected a decline of 1.3 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.0 million barrels to 242.6 million barrels. Analysts had expected an increase of 200 thousand .. refining capacity utilization rate increased by 0.1% to 90%. Expected to decline by 0.1%.

As investors continue to analyze the report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). As it became known, EIA has kept oil production forecast in the country in 2015-2016, contrary to expectations that production will decline because of falling world prices. According to the calculations EIA, this year the average daily production will be 9.3 million barrels, and in 2016 - 9.52 million. In January forecasted production management in the amount of 9.31 million and 9.53 million barrels, respectively. In January, the average daily production was 9.2 million barrels per day, according to a monthly report of EIA. "The volume of oil reserves in the industrialized countries, is expected to be a record at the end of this year, as world oil production is growing faster than demand for fuel," - wrote the head of the IEA report Adam Sieminski. Management raised its forecast for growth in world oil demand this year by 10,000 bpd to 1.01 million and lowered the forecast for 2016 by 20,000 bpd to 1.01 million.

Meanwhile, today, Barclays Capital analysts said that the recent rise in oil prices, as a result of which that has risen by about $ 10 per barrel, will not be sustainable, and soon the price will start to fall again. According to the calculations Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao, Brent could drop below $ 56.21 a barrel, while WTI - below $ 49.88. Analysts Jefferies Bache predict lower prices for both the standard in the near future. "We continue to expect new lows for the WTI and the price falls to $ 40. If this level is reached, the closest reference Brent price will be $ 48", - the report says Jefferies Bache.

March futures price for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) dropped to 49.00 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

March futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mix fell to $ 1.30 to $ 54.95 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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