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06.02.2015 07:30

Foreign exchange market. Asian session: U.S. dollar lower against the most major currencies, small gains versus the euro, almost flat against sterling

(Time/ Region/ Event/ Period/ Previous/ Forecast/ Actual

00:00 New Zealand Bank holiday

00:30 Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement

05:00 Japan Leading Economic Index December 103.9 105.5 105.2

05:00 Japan Coincident Index December 109.2 110.7

07:00 Germany Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) December -0.1% +0.4% +0.1%

07:00 Germany Industrial Production (YoY) December -0.5% -0.7%

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the most major currencies except for the euro that pauses after yesterday's gains and trading almost flat against the British pound. U.S. data from yesterday was mainly weaker-than-expected. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 31 in the U.S. increased by 11,000 to 278,000. The U.S. trade deficit widened to $46.56 billion in December from a deficit of $39.75 billion in November, driven by falling oil prices, a stronger greenback and a strengthening U.S. economy. Productivity in the U.S. non-farm businesses fell at a 1.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter. Unit labour costs increased 2.7% in the fourth quarter, exceeding expectations for a 1.1% rise.

Today U.S. data on Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls and the Unemployment rate followed by FOMC member Dennis Lockhart's speech will be in the focus.

The Australian dollar further recovered from a six-year low against the U.S. dollar hit on Monday. The RBA lowered growth and inflation forecasts for 2015 in its Monetary Policy Statement and stated that unemployment is going to rise. Economic growth is going to expand between 1.75% and 2.75% compared to the previous forecast of 2% to 3% in November. Inflation is projected to be around 1.25%, the previous forecast of the RBA was from 1.5% to 2.5%. Three days ago RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens's lowered rates as a consequence of slumping iron ore prices. Iron ore accounts to 20% of Australia's exports. A strong Australian dollar is threatening the export industry.

New Zealand's dollar continued to add gains for a sixth straight day against the greenback in Asian trade. The RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler said on Wednesday that interest rates will remain on hold "for some time". Today is a bank holiday in New Zealand.

The Japanese yen traded higher against the greenback on Friday. Japan's Leading Economic Index declined to 105.2 from a reading of 103.9. It was expected to rise to 105.5. The Coincident Index for December rose to 110.7 points with a previous reading of 109.2.

EUR/USD: the euro traded lower against the greenback

USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar lost against the yen

GPB/USD: Sterling traded almost flat against the U.S. dollar

The most important news that are expected (GMT0):

(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast)

08:00 Switzerland Foreign Currency Reserves January 495.1

08:15 Switzerland Retail Sales Y/Y December -1.2% +0.4%

09:30 United Kingdom Trade in goods December -8.8 -9.0

13:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) December -13.8% +4.5%

13:30 Canada Employment January -4.3 +5.1

13:30 Canada Unemployment rate January 6.6% 6.7%

13:30 U.S. Average hourly earnings January -0.2% +0.3%

13:30 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls January 252 231

13:30 U.S. Unemployment Rate January 5.6% 5.6%

17:45 U.S. FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks

20:00 U.S. Consumer Credit December 14.1 15.1

Market Focus

  • U.S.: Industrial Production (MoM), September 0.1% (forecast 0.2%)
  • Britain can't get full single market access with free movement concessions - Merkel
  • Earnings Season in U.S.. Major Reports of the Week
  • New Zealand CPI, 3Q: 0.2% q/q (forecast 0%), 0.2% y/y (forecast 0.1%)
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