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30.01.2015 16:42

Oil: a review of the market situation

Oil has risen moderately today, which was caused by concern over the fighting in Iraq, as well as the publication of US GDP data. Nevertheless, at the end of the month, prices fell again, fixing at this seventh consecutive monthly fall, which was not observed since 2009. Since early January Brent fell by 13%, WTI - by 15%. (the longest series of all time).

As shown by preliminary data from the US, in the 4th quarter. 2014 real GDP increased by 2.6%, not 3.3% Forecasts and slow compared with the result of the third quarter. 5.0%. A positive contribution to overall GDP made component of personal consumption, which increased by 4.3%. Favorable results showed private investment in inventories and exports. On the other hand, the pressure on the index had imports, reducing government spending and fixed investments by non-residents. GDP price index decreased by 0.3% versus + 1.4% in the previous quarter.

Oil prices are also rising on news from China: Beijing ordered the refineries of the country to keep a 15-day supply of oil. Although these regulations will come into force gradually over one to three years, many refineries will take advantage of low prices for stockpiling.

Otherwise, oil demand will remain weak, while the producers are trying to adapt to low prices, analysts predict. "Voluntary reduction in supplies to the markets of raw materials is increasingly unlikely. The fall in exchange rates and the cost of energy will allow many energy producers survive the decline in consumption," - the report says ANZ.

Investors will also evaluate new forecasts from Barclays Capital. Today, experts Barclays Capital lowered its forecast average oil price in 2015 from $ 72 to $ 44 per barrel. Moreover, now Barclays Capital analysts expect that in the II quarter of this year, oil quotes could fall to $ 40 per barrel. Recovery of oil prices, experts expect no earlier than 2016, when the average annual oil will cost about $ 60 per barrel.

March futures price for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to 45.12 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

March futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of Brent rose $ 0.41 to $ 49.47 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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