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13.01.2015 16:40

Oil: a review of the market situation

Oil prices continued to fall today, dropping at the same time below $ 46 a barrel amid speculation that US stocks rose at the end of last week. Pressure oil also had statements by the Minister of the UAE oil industry, which again confirmed that OPEC will not cut production.

Failed to improve market sentiment even positive data from China, the second largest oil consumer in the world. As it became known, the volume of oil imports to China in December rose to a record high. General Administration of Customs reported chtov last month, China imported 30.37 million tons of oil, which corresponds to 7.2 million barrels per day. This is 13% more than in the same period last year. In December, the volume of oil imports to China exceeded the record high in January 2014 28,160,000 tons. "The absence of any reaction on the oil market participants data from China indicates that demand factors play no role in the present time, and now dominates the supply factor," - noted in the note by Commerzbank.

Also, market participants continue to win back yesterday's forecasts from analysts Goldman Sachs. Recall, the bank's analysts have lowered the forecast average Brent price in 2015 to $ 50.40 per barrel from $ 83.75, and the forecast for WTI - up to $ 47.15 per barrel from $ 73.75. In their opinion, investments in shale oil will decline if the US standard would cost about $ 40 a significant portion of the first half. "A series of pessimistic forecasts for oil prices made by analysts, putting pressure on prices," - said in a statement the bank ANZ.

In addition, investors are expected to publish a report tomorrow on reserves from US Department of Energy. According to forecasts, the oil reserves at the end of last week rose by 1.75 million barrels - up to 384.1 million barrels, which is 8% higher than the average for this time of the year for the last five years. Any significant change in US Department of Energy forecasts of demand and supply of oil can lead to changes in oil prices.

The cost of the February futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) dropped to 45.71 dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

February futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mix fell $ 1.23 to $ 45.96 a barrel on the London Stock Exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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