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06.11.2014 16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil futures fell moderately, thus offsetting part of yesterday's promotion, which was associated with the expectations of the recovery of the largest producers of raw materials in Libya. On the eve of the work on al-Sharar were suspended because of an armed attack, and as a result of oil production in the country dropped by a third. According to Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen, the situation with the suspension of oil production indicates the chaos in which dwells Libya, and on how much may be unstable energy supply of the country. Earlier, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Venezuela, Rafael Ramirez after a meeting with the Minister of the oil industry in Saudi Arabia, Ali al-Nuaimi said that the collapse of oil prices causes widespread concern.

In addition, the prices pressured revised forecasts for oil demand from OPEC. In the short and medium term decline in oil production in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is likely to surpass the earlier forecasts. This assumption suggests that at some point the cartel can lower the upper limit of total production. According to the annual report on the global oil market, the end of 2017, oil production in the OPEC fell by 1.8 million barrels a day to 28.2 million barrels a day. In the current year, the average volume of production in the cartel is expected to reach 30 million barrels a day, which also corresponds to the current overall limit. The same last year forecast assumes a reduction in OPEC production by 1.1 million barrels per day by the end of 2017. Regular meeting of OPEC oil supplies which meet about a third of world demand, held on November 27. Although the results of the meeting of reducing the limit is not expected to released new projections indicate the prospect of lower production. Expectations regarding the OPEC cartel's production decline combined with short-term forecasts of growth in oil production from low-permeability rocks, which are sometimes also called shale oil.

The course of trading and continues to influence the last report on oil stocks in the US. According to the US Department of Energy, oil stocks in Cushing declined last week to 551 thousand. Barrels, with a decrease was observed for the first time in four weeks. This prompted a number of analysts to declare a "turning point."

"This is a turning point for the oil reserves in the US - they will begin to decline, with increased volumes of oil refining, due to the need to meet the growing anticipation of winter fuel demand - said raw analyst Woori Investment & Securities Co. Seoul Kang Yu Ying. - The price of oil is likely to rise in the next three months, as the low prices are unfavorable for producers of shale gas. "

The cost of December futures on US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 77.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

December futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 0.75 to $ 82.42 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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