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27.10.2014 16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil prices have dropped significantly today, while reaching its lowest level in nearly 28 months after analysts Goldman Sachs Group Inc. downgraded the outlook on prices for 2015, citing the growth of the world's supply.

According to new estimates from Goldman Sachs, in the first quarter of 2015. Brent crude oil will cost $ 85 per barrel (previously expected $ 100 per barrel) and WTI - $ 75 per barrel from $ 90 previously.

The experts believe that OPEC will lose its position of producer, able to influence the dynamics of oil prices, and this position will take the US to increase the production of shale oil. "Our forecasts oil prices reflect, including expectations and the loss of key OPEC ability to affect the pricing in the market," - said in a statement.

It is worth emphasizing, Goldman Sachs forecast the most pessimistic of all US financial institutions made ​​in recent concerns about the pace of growth and excess supply. Forecast Goldman goes against estimates Standard Chartered Bank, which analysts have estimated that a barrel of Brent in 2015 will cost $ 105

Add that concern about the weakening global demand, as well as signs that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut production to support oil quotations, also exert pressure in recent weeks. Oil production in the OPEC reached in September two-year high of 31 million barrels per day, due to the increase in production in Iraq and Libya. Some market analysts believe that only a reduction in the volume of production in the oil cartel will be able to stop the decline in prices.

Market participants are waiting for a meeting of oil ministers of the OPEC countries, scheduled for November 27, during which intend to consider the advisability of adjusting the current production at the level of 30 mln. Barrels per day at the beginning of 2015.

Today, as it became known that Iran plans to increase oil production. This was stated by Deputy Oil Minister of Iran Mansour Moazzam. The Islamic Republic plans to increase refining capacity from the current 1.8 million barrels per day to 3 million barrels. According to OPEC daily oil production in Iran in September was 2.675 million barrels. According to the calculations of Iranian experts, Iran's oil reserves will last for 60 years.

The cost of the November futures for US light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 80.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

December futures price for North Sea petroleum mix of mark Brent fell $ 0.42 to $ 85.71 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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