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21.10.2014 15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

The price of oil rose slightly today as the news of the increasing demand for oil from China have improved mood. Nevertheless, concerns about the global economic slowdown continued to weigh on prices.

Earlier today it was reported that the estimated consumption of oil in China in September rose by 6.2% compared to August to a seven-month peak due to the growth of oil refining. Average daily consumption rose to 10.3 million barrels, according to calculations based on preliminary official data, from 9.7 million barrels in August and 9.61 million in September last year. In January-September, the demand has increased by 2% compared to the same period last year to 9.91 million barrels per day. Calculation of consumption based on the data of refining and imports of petroleum products, but excluding stocks for which information published irregularly.

"Given the increase in industrial production in the future, we can expect the growth in oil consumption in China. It can push the price up, but global consumption will remain weak in the coming quarter, "- wrote in the report, analysts Phillips Futures in Singapore.

Meanwhile, we add that today the American investment bank Jefferies sharply downgraded the outlook for the price of Brent crude oil on the 2015-2016 years. As stated in the review of the bank's analysts Jason Gammel and Marc Kofler, Jefferies, it is expected that Brent next year on average will cost $ 90 a barrel in 2016 - $ 98 per barrel. Previously forecast for both years was $ 105 per barrel. "The market oversupply due to a combination of weak demand and rising supply, and whilst there was a concerted effort on the part of Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce production," - noted in the review.

On market sentiment also affect expectations OPEC meeting. On the eve of the meeting of November 27, some OPEC countries have made it clear that the organization will not reduce the restriction on oil production from the current 30 million barrels per day. However, according to analysts' estimates, the decline in oil prices may affect the production of shale oil in the United States, about a third of which would be unprofitable at the sale price is below $ 80 per barrel.

The cost of the November futures for the American light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 81.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

The price of December futures for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $ 0.40 to $ 85.66 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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