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03.07.2014 15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Crude oil futures fell today as concerns about the termination of oil supplies from Libya began to slowly fade.

As we learned from the statements of Prime Minister Abdullah al-Tinney, the Libyan government has agreed with the rebels on the resumption of oil terminals. This gives the country the opportunity to be exported up to 500,000 barrels of oil daily.

"Even if Libya resumes production, exports amount to only 40-50 per cent of pre-crisis value, and it is a little. Investors are still watching Iraq, "- analysts said Astmax Investment. In their view, the prices will go up in July because world production capacity is not sufficient to compensate for supply disruptions from Iraq, if any.

Meanwhile, we add that the Iraqi parliament failed to form a new government at the first meeting, and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki expressed the hope that this will happen at the second attempt. Iraq can not afford to stay for a long time without a government since the separatists take control of new areas in the north and west of the country. But while the fighting did not affect the export of oil.

If we consider the situation from the point of view of demand, the latest data on the U.S. - one of the world's largest oil consumer - have suggested that the economy is recovering. We also recall that yesterday presented the Energy Information Administration report showed that U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected last week as refineries increased capacity before the Independence Day holiday.

Market participants also drew attention to the employment report, which turned out much better than the experts' forecasts. Non-agricultural employment increased from a seasonally adjusted 288,000 last month. It was the strongest increase since January 2012. The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in June, the lowest level since September 2008. Economists forecast that employment will increase by 211,000 and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.3%.

Today, as it became known that the U.S. company Enterprise Product Partners sold abroad the first batch of ultra-light oil (condensate) in 40 years. According to the agency, the buyer - Japanese trader Mitsui, volume - 400,000 barrels, the actual delivery deadline - no later than the beginning of August. Recall that in June, the U.S. Commerce Department has authorized two companies to export oil ultralight actually removing acting 40 year-old ban on the supply of crude oil abroad.

Cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to $ 103.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell 13 cents to $ 110.67 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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