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02.04.2014 12:00

European session: the euro fеll against the U.S. currency


00:30 Australia Building Permits, m/m February +6.8% -1.7% -5.0%

00:30 Australia Building Permits, y/y February +34.6% +23.2%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index March +0.6% +0.8% +0.4%

06:00 United Kingdom Nationwide house price index, y/y March +9.4% +9.6% +9.5%

08:30 United Kingdom PMI Construction March 62.6 63.1 62.5

09:00 Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (Finally) Quarter IV +0.3% +0.3% +0.2%

09:00 Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Finally) Quarter IV +0.5% +0.5% +0.5%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index, MoM February -0.3% 0.0% -0.2%

09:00 Eurozone Producer Price Index (YoY) February -1.4% -1.6% -1.7%

09:00 Eurozone ECOFIN Meetings

09:00 Eurozone ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks

The euro exchange rate has lost all previously earned positions against the dollar on weak data and approximating the ECB meeting . Recently, increased expectations that the ECB will leave monetary policy unchanged and Draghi will optimistic. However, the media have been rumors that on Thursday members of the Governing Council will be conducted " vigorous debate " since the March Inflation Report has been very disappointing. This means that members of the ECB is still deep in thought as to what steps to take and launch new stimulus is not excluded. As for today's data , they showed that producer prices fell by 0.2 per cent ( on a monthly basis ) , after easing to 0.3 percent in January . Experts predicted that this figure will remain unchanged in February. Excluding energy , producer prices remained unchanged , after rising 0.1 percent in January . Prices for capital goods and consumer non-durables also remained unchanged in February. The cost of intermediate goods decreased by 0.1 percent , offsetting an increase of 0.1 percent in January . Meanwhile, lower energy prices slowed to 0.5 percent from 1.2 percent. On an annualized basis , producer prices fell by 1.7 per cent compared with a fall of 1.4 percent in the previous month . Fall also exceeded economists' consensus forecasts at -1.6 percent.

Meanwhile, another report from Eurostat showed : in the fourth quarter, the eurozone economy grew by 0.5% after falling 0.3 % in the previous quarter . Rate in quarterly terms rose by 0.2 % vs. 0.1% . Add that these data will be final. Experts predicted that GDP will rise by 0.3 % qoq and 0.5% per annum.

Pound showed a steady increase against the dollar in anticipation of UK PMI data , but weak report forced the couple to change its direction of motion . Despite the fact that it was a minor report , the market is still longed to get a new catalyst to propel the pair above , but nothing happened . Now the focus of employment data from the U.S. ADP , which in the case of a positive result can cause the couple to continue to grow, and to update the maximum. As for the data , they showed that the index of business activity in the construction sector from Markit / CIPS fell in March to a level of 62.5 points from 62.6 in February , but remained near the maximum for the last 6.5 years , which was recorded in January ( 64.6 points). We add that the index remains above the neutral mark for 11 consecutive months. Many experts , however, expect that figure will rise to the level of 63.1 points. Also, the report showed that the builders were elated last month ( optimism rose to its highest level since January 2007) and hired staff at the fastest pace in four months.

Put pressure on the pound and a report from the Nationwide Building Society, which showed that house prices rose in March by 9.5 percent ( yoy ) , after rising 9.4 percent in February. The latest increase was slightly less than the experts' forecasts at 9.7 percent, but was the highest since May 2010 , when prices rose by 9.8 percent . Given these changes , the average cost of housing in March totaled 180,264 pounds - the highest level since January 2008 . On a monthly basis , prices rose only 0.4 percent in March , which was slower than the 0.7 percent growth recorded in February and economists' forecasts at 0.8 percent. Nevertheless , it was the fifteenth consecutive monthly gain .

Dollar traded little change against the yen on the eve of today's publication of the U.S. data . Now all eyes are on the ADP employment report . According to the median forecast of economists in March, the number of new jobs created in the U.S. increased by 192 thousand , after rising by 139 thousand in the previous month . If the results are positive, it will cause the expectations for that go into Friday's payrolls USDA , followed closely following the Federal Reserve will also be optimistic. According to the median forecast of economists in March U.S. employers created 200 thousand jobs , against 175 thousand in the previous month . If the estimates are confirmed, the dollar has strengthened even more.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3783

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6663

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair fell to Y103.65 from Y103.95

At 12:15 GMT the U.S. will report on changes in the number of employees from ADP in March , and 14:00 GMT - a change in volume production orders for February. At 14:30 GMT the United States , there are data on crude oil inventories from the Energy Department . At 22:30 GMT , Australia will publish the index of activity in the service of AiG March . At 23:01 GMT Britain submit BRC Retail Sales Monitor for March. At 23:15 GMT Japan is to publish an index of business activity in the services sector in March .

02.04.2014 11:45


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