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27.03.2014 15:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil prices have risen markedly today , which was due to concerns about potential supply disruptions on the background of the possibility of conducting new sanctions on Russia's energy sector . U.S. data pointed to the growth of the economy , as prices of second-hand .

Note that yesterday the United States and the European Union have agreed to work together to prepare possible further economic sanctions in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine and to make Europe less dependent on Russian gas. U.S. President Barack Obama warned at a press conference that " the isolation of Russia will worsen tougher sanctions " if Moscow will continue the current course . Analysts say that uncertainty about Russia led to an increase in risk premiums in oil prices .

In addition, price increases help yesterday inventory data . Recall that oil stocks at Cushing last week fell by 1.33 million barrels - to 28.5 million barrels, minimum 2 years. Declines have been the eighth consecutive week . In general, U.S. crude inventories increased by 6.62 million barrels - up to 382.5 million barrels , the highest since November, and distillates - increased by 1.55 million barrels. Demand for gasoline in the United States exceeded 9 million barrels per day for the first time since the beginning of 2014 , rising by 5.8 % last week .

Meanwhile , we note that oil prices could fall to $ 12 per barrel if the United States as part of sanctions against Russia will start selling from strategic reserves of 500 thousand barrels per day. This was stated by an economist at the University of Calgary. At the same time, the expert of Energy Analytics Group Ltd. Tone Finlon believes that the impact will be short lived , as the prices on the world oil market quickly recovered after the previous cases, the sale of fuel from the U.S. reserves . As the senior partner Edward Chow , provisions exist to prevent disruptions , and not to manipulate prices.

With regard to the current situation , the prices are also affected by the fact that oil exports from Iran, the fifth consecutive month exceeds the amount of the sanctions , according to sources that track the movement of tankers. Within six months, until July 20, average exports should not exceed 1 million barrels, but at least November shipment to Asia remain above this level. Nigeria , by contrast, reduces oil exports because of theft . Deliveries may fall to its lowest level since 2009, when it started tracking them , and by May Nigeria may cease to be the largest exporter of oil in Africa .

May futures for U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 101.62 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

May futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture rose $ 0.84 to $ 107.67 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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