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19.03.2014 06:23

Asian session: The dollar was near a four-month low

04:30 Japan All Industry Activity Index, m/m January -0.1% +1.3% +1.0%

05:00 Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks


The dollar was near a four-month low against its peers amid bets the Federal Reserve will drop its jobless-rate threshold today and adopt qualitative guidance for signaling when it will raise interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee will conclude its first meeting today after Janet Yellen succeeded Ben S. Bernanke as chair last month. The central bank will probably scrap its 6.5 percent jobless-rate threshold in favor of qualitative guidance for signaling when it will consider raising the benchmark interest rate, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The unemployment rate was at 6.7 percent in February, near the lowest since October 2008.

Traders’ expectations of future currency swings remained near the lowest since 2012 after President Vladimir Putin said Russia isn’t seeking to split Ukraine further following the secession of its Crimea region. Putin yesterday told Russian lawmakers not to believe “those who scare you with Russia, who yell that Crimea will be followed by other regions.” While he said Russia doesn’t plan to further split up Ukraine, Putin underscored his right to defend Russian speakers in Ukraine’s east.

China’s currency completed the biggest three-day loss yesterday since at least 2007 amid concern financial risk is increasing.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3920

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair traded in the range of $ 1.6585-05

USD / JPY: on Asian session the pair traded in the range of Y101.25-50


The European session could be dominated by the UK data calendar and the UK 2014/15 Budget statement. The European calendar gets underway at 0745GMT, with the release of the French current account balance for January. EMU data set for release at 1000GMT includes the fourth quarter labour costs and the January construction output data. At 1500GMT, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will deliver a speech and take part in a conference discussion in Berlin. At 1700GMT, SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan will deliver a speech on moral hazard, in Bern, Switzerland. Sovereign issuance on Wednesday sees Germany re-open its 10-year benchmark 1.75% Feb 2024 Bund for up to E4bln. Across the Atlantic, the US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT, with the release of the MBA Mortgage Index for the March 14 week. The fourth quarter US current account data will follow at 1230GMT. Canadian data due at 1230GMT includes the release of the January Wholesale sales numbers. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks for the March 14 week will be published at 1430GMT. The highlight of the day comes at 1800GMT, when the FOMC announces the latest policy announcement, to be followed at 1830GMT by Fed Chair Janet Yellen's first post meet press conference.


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