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13.01.2014 19:22

American focus : the yen has risen considerably against the U.S. dollar

The dollar rose slightly against the euro due to sales of European institutional investors . According to analysts, in the coming days will determine the dynamics of markets is one important factor - this is how investors will regard the consequences of weak data on the U.S. labor market , released last week. In particular, many observers believe that it calls into question the willingness of the Fed to continue to decline in program QE.

In addition, we add that the course of trade affected comments Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart , who said that if the economy will confirm his expectations probably is expected to continue reducing the bond buyback program during the next months.

Saying that the economy seems to be busy to grow in 2014 , Lockhart said that "if the positive forecast is realized , then I would support such steps to reduce the redemption of bonds during the year ." He pointed to the broad expectations of continuing decline in bond redemption during the year . In December, reducing bond buyback program was launched - it was reduced from 85 to 75 billion dollars.

Lockhart is generally regarded as a centrist leaders of the Fed , and it was confirmed , as in speech , he noted that the Fed does not have a predetermined course of action , but will determine how well things are going , at each meeting, FOMC, for a decision on what will be the further measures . He also said that the Fed's policy is now " very challenging " and " adequate ." Currently Lockhart is not a voting member of the Federal Committee on Peacekeeping Operations on the open market .

He reported a cautious stance on the recent changes in the labor market , noting that " there is reason to expect further progress in the labor market ", but " although we have made significant progress , we are far from satisfactory situation."

Lockhart described the data on employment in December as " surprisingly weak" , but given the normal review process , he examines figures last month as "preliminary" . Lockhart noted that the apparent rapid improvement of data on unemployment , now at 6.7% repositories exaggerating progress in the labor market .

It is also concerned that inflation remains below the Fed's target level of 2%. Lockhart expects to return inflation to the target level of the Fed , in general , as inflation expectations remain stable .

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the dollar ahead of the release of the Bank of Canada survey , but almost no reaction to the publication itself . We add that the Bank of Canada survey data on the prospects of the business was , in general , more encouraging in expectations for economic growth than they could see the fear . The survey does not show a significant improvement in expectations, but also to reduce their effects were noted.

The survey results also showed that participants rely on export growth and investment, which leads us to expect from this side support for economic growth instead factor in consumer spending . Bank of Canada and used to say about the positive signs , so another confirmation of this position is not affected by a significant decrease in expectations to reduce interest rates by the Bank of Canada.

The yen has risen considerably against the U.S. dollar , which is probably a reaction to the publication on Friday employment report in the U.S., which came after the close of Asian markets last week. We also add that many analysts pointed to a lower Treasury yields after data on employment as a sign of a deeper decline of the dollar against the yen.

Recall that in December, the number of non-farm payrolls increased by only 74 thousand , compared with an increase of 241 thousand in the previous month , which was revised up from 203 thousand add that this was the lowest monthly increase in within three years. In addition, the Department of Labor reported that the unemployment rate fell to 6.7 % from 7% , although this decline was largely the result of reducing the number of workforce. Economists had expected the number of people employed in December to increase by 194 thousand and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged - at around 7.0%.

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