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27.11.2013 13:15

European session: British pound rose substantially against the U.S. dollar


(time / country / index / period / previous value / forecast / actual value)

2:30 Australia Gross handed buildings, m / m III m -0.3% +0.6% +2.7 %

9:00 Switzerland indicator of consumer activity from UBS October 1.56 1.28

11:00 Germany Consumer Confidence from GfK December 7.0 7.1 7.4

11:30 UK commercial investment volume change , m / m -2.7 % m III +2.3% +1.4%

11:30 UK GDP q / q (Restated ) III m +0.8% +0.8% +0.8%

11:30 UK GDP y / y ( revised data ) III m +1.5 % +1.5 % +1.5 %

13:00 UK Retail sales according to CBI February November  2  12  1

Rate of the euro strengthened against the dollar on the news that the German coalition reached an agreement that will form a grand coalition . This agreement will improve wages and increase spending without raising taxes. The agreement was reached this morning in Berlin after 17 hours of talks between the leader of the Christian Democratic Union Angela Merkel , leaders of the CSU , the Conservatives and the Social Democrats. This allows up to Merkel in 2017 to occupy the office of chancellor in Europe's largest economy .

SPD plans to hold a referendum among the roughly 470,000 members. If the problem does not arise with the SPD that Merkel will be elected to parliament and take the oath of 17 or December 18. Covenant Coalition suggests that Merkel will follow European politics, which was held during the debt crisis in Europe , including the rejection of joint and several liability for the debts of euro countries .

The euro was also supported amid rising short-term rates in the market . Interbank lending rates in the euro rose yesterday , as the levels of excess liquidity in the financial system fell to a minimum of more than 2 years.

In addition, growth data helped the euro , which were published today a group GfK. They showed that the December index of consumer sentiment has improved markedly , while reaching the highest level in the past six years . Note that this increase was due to the expectation that a substantial increase in costs offset weaker export performance and will help Europe's largest economy to fix moderate growth this year.

According to the report , the December consumer confidence index , based on a survey of about 2,000 people , rose to 7.4 points , compared to the upwardly revised figure for the previous month by around 7.1 points ( originally reported 7.0 points). Note that this was the highest since August 2007 . We also add that according to the average forecasts of experts , the index had only grow to 7.1 points.

Pound rose substantially against the U.S. dollar , which was associated with the release of a report by Britain's GDP . Note that the data published by the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy grew in the third quarter of this year , which was caused by the most rapid growth of household spending in more than three years, which is only partly offset by a sharp decline in exports . Note that this situation is likely to increase fears that the recovery may not be possible . The report showed that exports from the UK fell by 2.4% in the third quarter , registering with the highest rate of more than two years, coupled with the increasing volume of imports has taken away from the overall growth of about 0.9 percentage points.

The Office for National Statistics reported that the economy grew by 0.8 % in the third quarter , confirming an earlier estimate. The largest contribution to this rise came from consumers who have increased their spending by 0.8 % - the eighth consecutive increase and the fastest pace in more than three years.

Given that incomes continue to fall in real terms , as wages lag behind the rate of inflation after the financial crisis , the Bank of England officials have questioned how long the recovery based on consumer spending can be sustained .

Note that the economic growth in the third quarter continued to recover , which began in January , and placed in one of the UK 's fastest growing developed countries.

EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.3613 , but later decreased slightly

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair rose to $ 1.6294

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose to Y101.86

At 13:30 GMT the United States will announce the change in orders for durable goods in October and initial claims for unemployment insurance . At 14:45 GMT the U.S. will release Chicago PMI index for November, and 14:55 GMT - an indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan in November. At 23:50 GMT , Japan will report on changes in the volume of retail trade in October.

27.11.2013 13:00


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