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19.11.2013 16:40

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil prices have not changed , while continuing to trade near a five-month low, as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has lowered its forecasts for global growth. We note that the OECD estimates this year, the world economy is likely to grow by 2.7 percent and 3.6 percent next year instead of 3.1 percent and 4 percent, as predicted in May. The OECD report says that this year, India's economy will grow 3.4 percent and 5.1 percent in 2014 , compared with 5.7 percent and 6.6 percent, as previously thought. The organization has reduced its forecast for Brazil to 2.5 percent and 2.2 percent from 2.9 percent and 3.5 percent , respectively. U.S. growth will be 1.7 percent and 2.9 percent this year and next , the overall prospects are similar to the May and Japan 's gross domestic product will increase by 1.8 percent and 1.5 percent. China's GDP to grow by 7.7 percent this year and 8.2 percent in 2014. OECD expects the euro zone economy contracted by 0.4 per cent , that is, the forecast was increased compared with May , which assumed a decline of 0.6 percent in 2014, growth will be 1 percent. The OECD has also provided a forecast for 2015 : the world economy will expand by 3.9 per cent , the United States - will grow by 3.4 percent, the eurozone - by 1.6 per cent and Japan - by 1 percent, the report said. China's GDP will increase by 7.5 percent.

Add that market participants expect the release of data on stocks . Analysts do not rule out the possibility that the outcome of the next reporting week that ended Nov. 15 , the trend of the increase in oil inventories in the U.S. broke off , leaving them the first time in nine weeks decreased by about 0.5 million barrels. However, traders are not in a hurry to open their positions and await preliminary data analysis organization , " the American Petroleum Institute ," which will be published today .

Meanwhile, we note that the bank Citigroup today announced that predicts the price of Brent crude oil in the 4th quarter at $ 105 per barrel, and in 2014, prices are expected to reach $ 98 per barrel. The reason for reducing the forecast change in the bank called the U.S. relationship to the situation in Syria and the progress in resolving the dispute with Iran over its nuclear program. " Downward pressure on the market price of oil is increasing and this trend is unlikely to be destroyed by a shortage of supply in 2014, taking into account the current level of supply in the market ," - analysts say. The bank expects that the average price of WTI crude oil in 2014 will amount to 92.80 dollars.

The cost of the December futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) rose to $ 93.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

January futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell to $ 107.86 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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