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06.11.2013 19:20

American focus : the dollar fell against the euro

The euro exchange rate rose sharply against the dollar, although it has lost some of the previously won positions in response to rumors that report , quoting official sources in the ECB that the decline in inflation does not become a reason to lower the rates of the Central Bank at tomorrow's meeting.

Now the pair continues to consolidate above the key level of 1.3500 , and all the attention of market participants have already drawn for tomorrow's ECB meeting . Meanwhile, traders are walking among rumors of a possible lowering of rates or operated other instrument of monetary stimulus .

If the ECB decides tomorrow to leave rates unchanged , likely rally EUR / USD will be much less extensive than the fall , which could determine the reduction rate by 25 basis points This is due to the fact that after the announcement of the decision itself (presumably - the abandonment rate at the same level ), attention switches to the markets of the subsequent press conference , the tone of which can be very dovish , and will assume or the inclusion of the ECB dictionary of vocabulary or allusions to measures - and potentially aggressive - in the future . "

The pound traded higher against the dollar, while retreating from a session high . Note that initially helped the growth of currency data on industrial production in the UK , which showed that total production rose by 2.2 percent year on year in September , after falling 1.5 percent in August and 1.1 percent decline in July. The consensus forecast of economists was at 1.8 percent.

In addition, the data showed that manufacturing output increased by 0.8 percent annually in September. This happened after falling 0.2 percent in August and 0.4 percent drop in July. The result corresponds to the forecast of economists.

On a monthly basis , total production increased by 0.9 percent compared with a forecast of 0.7 percent growth. Manufacturing output increased by 1.2 percent in September compared with the previous month , in line with economists' forecasts .

It should be noted that the support of the pound has also had a report from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), which showed that economic growth in the UK for three months , including October , is 0.7 %, mainly due to service companies of the private sector . It is slightly smaller than the GDP growth of 0.8 % in the three months through September , and significantly less than the growth of 1.3% , which was mentioned in the latest study by PMI .

NIESR expects GDP growth rate in 2013 at 1.4 % , and 2.0 % in 2014 , slightly below average expectations of economists.

Add that little pressure on the currency have expectations of tomorrow's Bank of England decision . Note that the Bank of England is likely to leave monetary policy unchanged, despite signs of strengthening the economy , as fulfills the promise to keep the level of the key rate , while unemployment exceeds the benchmark .

06.11.2013 18:20

European stock close

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