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04.11.2013 19:21

American focus : the dollar fell against the euro

The euro rose against the dollar, which has been associated with the release of data on the U.S.. The Ministry of Commerce reported that up to September, the volume of industrial orders increased significantly , which followed a two-month decline. However , it was noticed a sharp decline in orders for machinery and other goods, which may indicate a slowdown in economic growth.

According to the report , the volume of industrial orders rose 1.7 percent in September , compared with a decline of 0.1 percent in August and a decrease of 2.8 percent in July. Note that this improvement primarily was due to 57.7 -percent increase in demand for airplanes. But , despite this significant growth rate could exceed the forecasts of experts at the level of 1.9 percent.

Meanwhile, we add that the orders for the so -called core capital goods, which include machinery and electronics, fell 1.3 percent in September . Such dynamics was related to the 23.6 -percent decline in demand for machinery, and also a large decrease in orders for construction machinery , electric turbines and generators. Note that many economists pay more attention to the major orders because they exclude more vollatilnye orders for defense and aircraft, and are the best indicator of readiness of business to invest. We add that the decline for the second time in three months indicates a weak activity in the manufacturing sector in the third quarter.

In addition , the data showed that orders for durable goods rose 3.8 percent in September , mainly due to increase in orders for aircraft . The large increase in demand for aircraft helped offset the 0.7 percent drop in demand for cars and auto parts . This decline is expected to be temporary , given the strength of car sales this year. Note also that the demand for non-durable goods fell 0.2 percent.

I should add that many analysts predict weak economic growth in the second half of the year . They predict that the increase in the annual rate of about 1.9 percent in the third quarter and about 2 percent in the last quarter . Both rates are lower than the 2.5 percent rate of growth recorded in the period from April to June.

The pound outgrowth significantly against the dollar, which has been associated with the release of strong data on Britain. Note that the index of business activity in the UK construction sector has strengthened in the past month , and the growth rate was the highest since September 2007 . According to the report , the index of business activity in the construction sector Markit / CIPS PMI rose to 59.4 in October , beating economists' expectations , against 58.9 in September. The figures were the latest in a series of positive economic indicators , on Friday November 1 out strong report on the industrial sector . Economists are now focused on data on business activity in the services sector , which includes private companies outside the retail sector and sheds light on a much larger part of the British economy than construction .

"The volume of construction of the UK continue to grow, and we can all see rapid expansion early in the fourth quarter," said Markit economist Tim Moore . The construction sector suffered the most among the branches of the British economy since the financial crisis , due to the fall in the housing market and the austerity measures of the state: it was closed a lot of construction projects to save money . In the three months to September, an increase of 2.5% according to official data , the fastest pace since Q2 2010 . This however, is a relatively small part of the British economy.

"Proof that the construction sector continues to gain momentum is good news for the overall prospects of growth, but it must be remembered that the sector accounts for only 6.3 percent of national output ," - said IHS Global Insight economist Howard Archer.

04.11.2013 18:20

European stock close

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