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15.10.2013 12:14

European session: the dollar rose significantly against the euro after data ZEW

Data

00:30 Australia RBA Meeting's Minutes October

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) September +0.7% Revised From +0.8% -0.1%

00:30 Australia New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) September +0.2% -3.5%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) August -0.7% -0.7% -0.9%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) August -0.2% -0.2% -0.4%

06:45 France CPI, m/m September +0.5% -0.3% -0.2%

06:45 France CPI, y/y September +0.9% +0.9% +1.0%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail Price Index, m/m September +0.5% +0.4% +0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom Retail prices, Y/Y September +3.3% +3.2% +3.2%

08:30 United Kingdom RPI-X, Y/Y September +3.3% +3.2% +3.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) September -0.2% -0.1% -1.2%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) September +2.8% +2.2% +1.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) September +0.1% -0.1% -0.1%

08:30 United Kingdom Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) September +1.6% +1.3% +1.2%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, m/m September +0.4% +0.3% +0.4%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP, Y/Y September +2.7% +2.6% +2.7%

08:30 United Kingdom HICP ex EFAT, Y/Y September +2.0% +2.0% +2.2%

09:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment October 58.6 59.4 59.1

09:00 Germany ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment October 49.6 49.2 52.8


The euro exchange rate depreciated markedly against the U.S. dollar, which has been associated with the release of ambiguous data from the institute ZEW, as well as optimism about budget issues .

As shown by the results of recent studies that have been submitted to the Centre for European Economic Research ZEW, the level of German economic sentiment rose significantly in October , reaching with its highest level in more than three years.

According to the report , the October index of sentiment in the business environment has increased to the level of 52.8 points, compared with 49.6 in September. Note that the last value of this index was the highest since April 2010 . Many economists had forecast the index to rise slightly , and reach a level of 59.4 . For comparison, we add that historically the average value of the index is 23.9 points.

Meanwhile, it was reported that the index , which reflects the view of the current economic situation in Germany, fell in October to the level of 29.7, compared with 30.6 in September. It is predicted the figure would rise to the level of 31.3 points.

Meanwhile, data released today also showed that the index of business sentiment in the euro area increased ">The pound dropped significantly against the dollar , as the Congress is getting closer to an agreement on a temporary increase in the debt ceiling. Increased optimism regarding the issue supported the dollar , two days before the deadline on the debt ceiling to be held on October 17.

We also add that today pound got a temporary boost from data on inflation in Britain, which came out more than expected , thereby reducing the likelihood that the Bank of England will expand QE program from the current level of GBP375 billion

As shown by the latest report , which was submitted to the Office for National Statistics , at the end of last month , consumer price inflation in the UK has remained unchanged - at 2.7 percent. Note that inflation continues to remain above the target level of the central bank - at around 2 percent. Economists forecast that the annual inflation rate to fall to 2.6 per cent .

A monthly basis, consumer prices rose in September by 0.4 percent, while showing the same growth rate , which was recorded in August.

In addition, it was reported that CPIH - a new measure of inflation , which includes the cost of home owners rose by 2.5 percent compared to the previous year , remained unchanged from August .

The Office for National Statistics also reported that core inflation, which excludes prices of energy , food , alcoholic drinks and tobacco rose in September to 2.2 percent from 2 percent in August. Inflation is projected to remain at the level was 2 percent.

While this news was a supporting factor for the pound , the improvement of macroeconomic indicators in Britain in recent years suggests that additional QE measures are required. Instead, the market's attention will be focused on unemployment , as head of the Bank of England Carney made ​​it clear that the passage of the threshold of 7% will be the signal for the Central Bank to explore opportunities to increase the rate.


EUR / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.3478

GBP / USD: during the European session, the pair fell to $ 1.5912

USD / JPY: during the European session, the pair rose from Y98.36 to Y.98.70, but then again fell to Y98.45


At 12:30 GMT the U.S. will release the Empire Manufacturing production index for October. At 21:45 GMT New Zealand will present the consumer price index for the 3rd quarter . At 23:30 GMT Australia will release the index of leading economic indicators from the Melbourne Institute in August.

15.10.2013 12:01

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