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10.10.2013 15:20

Gold: an overview of the market situation

Gold prices fell slightly , dropping at the same time to $ 1,300 an ounce on Thursday, as there were early successes in resolving the issue of the budget and the national debt ceiling . It should be noted that representatives of both Republicans and Democrats on the eve of reported willingness to consider the possibility of temporarily increasing the upper limit of the debt. Republicans say about 4-6 weeks , which can raise the level of gosdogla , thereby avoiding a default and deciding it's time for questions from the budget. The idea of ​​a temporary increase in the debt ceiling also supported the administration of President Obama , while noting that they prefer long-term solutions. However , this is only temporary and superficial solution that does not solve the problem, but only allows you to buy some time , but at the moment it is enough to have a positive impact on the markets , as the probability of default on this background is significantly reduced.

In addition, we add that the course of trade continued to influence the protocol presented last September meeting of the FOMC, which revealed the decision to delay folding of the QE program was close to realization. Camp doves on the Committee defeated the hawks , saying the economic recovery is too fragile to start folding. The newly nominated successor, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke confirmed the assumption that the new head will be the same as the old one, is firmly entrenched in the squad pigeons and maintaining ultra accommodative policy. If under normal circumstances, the protocol would have worn more critical, pointing to the possibility of folding in October , the " shatdaun " and uncertainty over the debt ceiling have dropped steadily reduce the probability of launching incentive for 2014 .

Note that the price of gold has fallen by about 22 percent this year on expectations that the Fed will cut its monthly bond purchases.

Meanwhile , we add that the physical buying of the metal were also unable to grow in spite of the decline in prices. " The concern is the lack of physical demand from China in the past two sessions: the physical premiums in Hong Kong actually fell , and orders are not so much" , said in a note ISS SA.

It is worth mentioning that today the Morgan Stanley analysts lowered the outlook for the gold price . In 2014, gold will continue to decline amid expectations that the Fed will cut incentives, as the U.S. economy recovers , according to Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG also expect that the market will be dominated by bears.

"We recommend to stay away from gold at this stage of the cycle ," - said analyst Joel Crane . The price of the precious metal will average U.S. $ 1,313 per ounce in 2014 , compared to 1420 dollars this year , according to a quarterly report by Morgan Stanley metals.

"Gold will continue to fall in the next year , because the U.S. economic recovery will continue after lawmakers leave the situation ", - said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman goods. Precious metals will be the average decline each year until 2018 , predicts Morgan Stanley.

The cost of the December gold futures on COMEX today dropped to $ 1301.00 per ounce.

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