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30.09.2013 06:21

Asian session: The yen strengthened

00:00 New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence September 48.1 54.1

00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, m/m September +0.1% +0.2%

00:30 Australia MI Inflation Gauge, y/y September +2.1% +2.1%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, m/m August +0.4% +0.4% +0.3%

01:30 Australia Private Sector Credit, y/y September +3.2% +3.5% +3.4%

01:45 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Finally) September 51.2 51.2 50.2

05:00 Japan Housing Starts, y/y August +12.0% +12.9% +8.8%

The dollar dropped to a one-month low against the yen as political wrangling over the budget threatened a U.S. government shutdown from tomorrow.

The U.S. currency extended its first quarterly drop versus the yen since a year ago, with Congress deadlocked over Republicans’ insistence on delaying the 2010 health-care law. The U.S. Senate will reconvene today, when it will reject a House of Representatives plan passed yesterday to delay and limit President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act. In response, the House would add “another provision” to the spending measure and send it back to the Senate, said Representative Kevin McCarthy, the top House Republican vote counter.

The yen climbed against all 16 major peers and reached a three-week high per the euro as demand for safety increased with Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta’s government on the verge of collapse. Italian Prime Minister Letta said he will ask for a vote of confidence on Oct. 2, speaking on Rai 3 television. The Italian government has been torn apart by legal troubles facing former leader Silvio Berlusconi, whose criminal tax-fraud conviction subjects him to expulsion proceedings in parliament. Berlusconi allies have said they planned to quit the cabinet.

The pound gained versus the dollar before Markit Economics releases a U.K. factory index tomorrow that economists forecast increased to a 2 1/2-year high of 57.5 in September. A report today from London-based property researcher Hometrack showed that U.K. house prices rose the most in more than six years this month.

EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $ 1.3480

GBP / USD: during the Asian session, the pair rose to $ 1.6180

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell to Y97.65

A fairly quite calendar start to the week Monday, although all focus is on Washington DC, where the deadline for a deal to avert the Government shutdown is fast approaching. European data gets underway at 0600GMT, with the release of the German retail sales data. August sales are seen up 0.8% vs the pervious -1.4%, with the on year number up 0.6%. At 0645GMT, the French August PPI numbers will cross the wires. Italian Sep flash HICP numbers are due. At 0900GMT, the EMU September flash HICP data will cross the wires. Year-on-year data is expected to be at 1.2%, with core at 1.1%.

For the US, a failure to raise the debt limit on Oct 17 would be worse than a government shutdown, Moody's says in a report. Financial market and economic consequences would likely be more severe if the debt limit is not raised than under a government shutdown. "Although the expenditure reduction under the debt limit scenario is smaller, the perception that the US government could default on servicing its debt if the debt limit is not raised could roil financial markets and damage business and consumer confidence," Moody's says. If a shutdown occurred, the government would still service its debt, but like the government shutdown from late 1995 to early 1996, most federal employees would expect to be unpaid and not work. "Our expectation is that the US will avoid a government shutdown and will increase the debt limit."

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