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14.08.2013 06:22

Asian session: The dollar held gains

00:30 Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence August -0.1% +3.5%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, q/q Quarter II +0.7% +0.8% +0.7%

01:30 Australia Wage Price Index, y/y Quarter II +3.2% +3.0% +2.9%


The dollar held gains from yesterday against most of its major peers as signs of economic recovery boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will next month reduce its asset purchases which tend to debase the currency.

The greenback traded near a one-week high versus the yen before U.S. data which may show manufacturing in the New York region expanded at the fastest pace in six months. The New York Fed’s general economic index probably climbed to 10 in August, the highest since February, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the data tomorrow. Readings greater than zero for the so-called Empire State gauge signal expansion in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who backed last month’s decision to continue bond buying, will speak today in Paducah, Kentucky. He has said central bank should wait for evidence the labor market and economy are strengthening before dialing back its quantitative easing program.

Demand for the 17-nation euro was supported before a report which may show the region’s economy pulled out of recession. Euro-area gross domestic product probably grew 0.2 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, after six straight quarters of contraction, another survey showed before data today. The European Central Bank left its key interest rate unchanged this month at 0.5 percent. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said yesterday its index of investor confidence in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, rose to 42 this month from 36.3 in July. That was the highest since March and exceeded the 39.9 median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg survey.



EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.3250-70

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in the range of $ 1.5435-55

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair fell below Y98.00


There is another full calendar on both sides of the Atlantic Wednesday, although European lawmakers and central bankers remain glued to their sun loungers - although some are likely to find their way to a microphone if the region does officially exit the 18-month long recession. The early data sees the release of the French Q2 GDP data, with expectations for 0.2% on quarter rise - which will translate as a -0.1% annualised reading. At 0600GMT, German flash Q2 GDP numbers will be release, with the expectations for a 0.6% on quarter rise. Further French data is expected at 0630GMT, with the release of the July Bank of France retail trade numbers, the July HICP data and the second quarter job creations. Spanish data due at 0700GMT will see the release of the June industrial orders data. The EMU flash second quarter GDP numbers will cross the wires at 0900GMT are are expected to confirm the area as a whole exited the recession in Q2.

There is a raft of UK data expected at 0830GMT, including jobs and earnings data. The spotlight will be on the Labour Force Survey jobless rate for the

three months through June, now the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee has adopted a 7% LFS rate as an interim policy threshold. Also due at 0830GMT are the minutes of the August BOE MPC meeting.


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