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12.08.2013 06:03

Asian session: The Dollar Index rose

02:00 New Zealand REINZ Housing Price Index, m/m July 0.0% -0.5%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Finally) June -3.3% -3.1% -3.1%

04:30 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) (Finally) June -4.8% -4.8% -4.6%


The Dollar Index rose for a second day before U.S. data forecast to show retail sales rose a fourth consecutive month, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to reduce stimulus which tends to debase the currency. Retail sales in the U.S. probably climbed 0.3 percent in July after a 0.4 percent advance in June, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before Commerce Department figures tomorrow. The Fed is buying $85 billion of Treasuries and mortgage debt each month to put downward pressure on interest rates.

The yen swayed between gains and losses as investors speculated how slower-than-forecast economic growth in Japan would shape Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s decision on whether to raise the sales tax. In Japan, GDP (JGDPAGDP) expanded an annualized 2.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with a revised 3.8 percent increase in the first, Cabinet Office data showed today. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast 3.6 percent growth.

The 17-nation euro rallied from the lowest in six weeks against the Japanese currency before reports which may show industrial production and gross domestic product in the currency bloc rebounded. Economists in a separate Bloomberg poll estimate a report tomorrow will show industrial output in the euro area grew 0.9 percent in June from the month before, when it fell 0.3 percent. The region’s GDP probably grew 0.2 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, another survey showed before data due on Aug. 14. The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged this month at 0.5 percent.


EUR / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell to $1.3315

GBP / USD: during the Asian session the pair fell below $1.5500

USD / JPY: during the Asian session the pair rose to Y96.65


As policy makers and central bankers continue to enjoy the Summer sunshine, traders at their desks have a very limited calendar to focus on Monday. However, the data calendar picks up on both sides of the Atlantic as the week moves on. Early European data sees the release of the French June current account data at 0645GMT. At 0715GMT, Swiss June retail sales data will cross the wires. Economists are looking for a reading in line with May's 1.8% y/y increase.

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