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15.07.2013 15:41

Oil: an overview of the market situation

Oil prices fell slightly, dropping below $ 109, which was associated with the publication of Chinese data, which showed a slowdown in economic growth and a weaker-than-expected rise in retail sales.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China in the II quarter of 2013 increased by 7.5% year on year. This figure is the lowest since 1999. The official estimate for economic growth in April-June was below analysts' expectations - at 7.7%. We also add that China's GDP in the II quarter of 2013 compared to the previous quarter fell 0.2%. In the previous quarter (January-March 2013) GDP growth at an annual rate of 7.7%.

In the first half of 2013, China's GDP reached 24.8 trillion yuan (4.04 trillion U.S. dollars) - a 7.6 percent increase over the same period in 2012.

In a separate report, the statistical office showed that industrial production rose by 8.9 percent year on year in June. It was weaker than the 9.2 percent rise in May and the projected 9.1 percent expansion.

Investment in fixed assets grew by 20.1 percent in January-June, slower than the 20.4 percent growth between January and May, another report showed the Statistical Office. It was also lower than expected growth of 20.2 percent.

The data added evidence that China's economy is facing downward pressure from sluggish external demand and economic restructuring.

The authorities have recently stated that they are willing to endure the economic slowdown and go ahead with more ambitious economic reforms in order to achieve sustainable and balanced growth in the long term.

However, some data showed that retail sales growth was better than expected. Sales increased by 13.3 percent year on year in June, faster than the 12.9 percent growth forecast. In May, sales rose by 12.9 percent.

We also note that the dynamics of trades also had an impact statement by OPEC. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said the possibility of reducing the volume of oil production at 500,000 barrels a day in December, if that happens, it would be the first decline in five years. The forecast is based on the assumption that the increase in production of oil shale deposits in the U.S. will lead to a reduction in demand for oil cartel in 2014. According to the expectations of OPEC and the International Energy Agency in 2014, the demand for OPEC oil will be lower than the current 30 million barrels per day.

It is predicted that in the first half of 2014, oil demand will be about 800,000 barrels per day less than 30 million barrels a day now.

The decision to limit production decreases in the cartel will depend on the level of world oil reserves in December. Risks, given the political crisis in Egypt and floods in Canada may induce the cartel to refrain from lowering the limit of production. OPEC will not cut production if oil prices remain above $ 100.

The cost of the August futures on U.S. light crude oil WTI (Light Sweet Crude Oil) fell to 105.88 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

August futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil mixture fell to $ 108.80 a barrel on the London exchange ICE Futures Europe.

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